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A good start down a long road

by Forechecker on 02/09/09 at 04:39 PM ET
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Two short weeks ago, all seemed lost; an out-of-control spiral into the All-Star Break saw the Nashville Predators battered, beaten, and humiliated at times.  If you follow the projections over at Sports Club Stats, their chance of making the playoffs for the fifth straight season dipped as low as 13% after that 3-1 loss to the Devils on January 19.

But now?  A recent 5-2 stretch has brought them back into the Western Conference playoff mix, and the four-game homestand which starts tomorrow night against Detroit is the next step along the road to the postseason.  Interestingly, none of the four opponents coming up (Red Wings, Blues, Bruins & Senators) are among the teams they’re trying to catch; at this point, it’s always nicer to know that your victory is also a critical loss for the opponent.

So realistically, what do we need to see out of these next four games, as the Preds continue climbing their way up through the standings?

1.  Results - no matter how it gets done, Nashville needs to garner at least 6 points out of these 4 games.  The Blues and Senators are teams that they should beat at home, and they’ll need to spring an upset out of either one of Detroit or Boston games, or at least take them to OT.  One hopeful note there is that the Bruins will be coming to town after having played in New Jersey the night before.

2. Rewards - the decision on which players to dress and which to scratch has been constrained of late by injuries to Wade Belak and Jordin Tootoo, but even once both are ready for action, I’m not sure they deserve to play.  Having a knuckle-chucker who plays 5-10 minutes a night is a luxury this team simply can’t afford right now.  They have to focus on winning each and every game down the stretch.  Tootoo in particular has taken a major step backwards this season after he looked like a 15-20 goal scorer last year.

3. Discipline - the quality of the Predators’ special teams has remained consistent over the years; great on the PK, frustratingly bad on the power play.  While neither of those is likely to shift without a major personnel or coaching change, a focus on drawing penalties and not taking them might provide immediate dividends.  The table below lists some of the high-level special teams information for each team; how many opportunities they’ve had on the PP and PK, conversion percentages, goals for and against, and ultimately, a Special Teams Goal Differential that nets out the results of PP and PK work.  The fact that Nashville has been on the PK 25 times more than on the power play is perhaps the most “fixable” aspect of their play right now.

	Special Teams Opportunities and Goals For & Against
Team	PP Opp	PK Opp	PP-PK Diff	PP %	PPGF	SHGA	PK %	PPGA	SHGF	ST GL Diff
San Jose Sharks	237	185	52	23.2	55	7	85.4	27	8	29
Minnesota Wild	219	181	38	21	46	2	86.7	24	3	23
Buffalo Sabres	235	220	15	20.4	48	1	85	33	5	19
Philadelphia Flyers	202	269	-67	24.3	49	0	83.3	45	13	17
Detroit Red Wings	228	225	3	27.6	63	1	77.8	50	3	15
Boston Bruins	210	199	11	23.3	49	4	82.4	35	4	14
Chicago Blackhawks	223	218	5	21.5	48	4	81.2	41	8	11
St. Louis Blues	232	236	-4	21.6	50	5	82.2	42	5	8
New Jersey Devils	188	211	-23	18.6	35	2	82	38	10	5
Montreal Canadiens	248	238	10	16.5	41	4	82.8	41	9	5
Calgary Flames	239	228	11	18.8	45	11	85.5	33	3	4
Los Angeles Kings	225	228	-3	18.7	42	4	82.5	40	4	2
Ottawa Senators	215	216	-1	18.1	39	3	82.4	38	4	2
New York Islanders	213	231	-18	17.8	38	4	82.2	41	9	2
Washington Capitals	229	259	-30	23.6	54	6	79.2	54	6	0
New York Rangers	222	216	6	14.9	33	13	86.6	29	7	-2
Dallas Stars	230	203	27	17.4	40	1	77.8	45	2	-4
Carolina Hurricanes	242	201	41	16.9	41	6	79.1	42	3	-4
Vancouver Canucks	228	244	-16	18.9	43	3	79.1	51	5	-6
Anaheim Ducks	213	271	-58	22.1	47	6	81.2	51	3	-7
Colorado Avalanche	219	205	14	17.4	38	4	78	45	4	-7
Nashville Predators	215	240	-25	13.5	29	5	84.6	37	6	-7
Florida Panthers	201	211	-10	16.4	33	7	81.5	39	4	-9
Phoenix Coyotes	233	209	24	13.7	32	2	79	44	4	-10
Pittsburgh Penguins	243	231	12	16.5	40	10	80.1	46	4	-12
Toronto Maple Leafs	219	204	15	19.6	43	4	74	53	1	-13
Tampa Bay Lightning	230	266	-36	16.1	37	5	80.8	51	3	-16
Edmonton Oilers	237	222	15	16.9	40	7	76.1	53	2	-18
Atlanta Thrashers	220	227	-7	19.1	42	9	75.8	55	2	-20
Columbus Blue Jackets	226	227	-1	12	27	9	80.6	44	5	-21

 

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