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The Ottawa Senators ended the 2010-11 season in 13th place in the Eastern Conference and 26th place overall in the NHL and looked to be on track for a painful rebuild. As they entered this past season they were picked by many analysts to be battling for the first overall pick, not the playoffs. Well Brian Murray, Eugene Melnyk and the rest of the Senators organization proved everyone wrong by making the playoffs and they were one win away from eliminating the first place NY Rangers in their first round playoff series.
Now that the Toronto Marlies are one win away from the Western Conference Finals in the Calder Cup playoffs, many people are beginning to draw comparisons between last season’s Ottawa Senators and the Toronto Maple Leafs. But is this a fair comparison?
The theme of the 2012 Western Conference finals has to be “out with the old; in with the new.” Anybody who questions that mantra need only to look up the combined conference finals berths in the (relatively short) histories of the Phoenix Coyotes and Los Angeles Kings. That total would be one — achieved by the 1993 Kings starring Wayne Gretzky. But that was so long ago that the team the Kings defeated in the conference finals, the Toronto Maple Leafs, are now in the Eastern Conference. (The Kings lost in the Stanley Cup Finals to the great Patrick Roy and the Montreal Canadiens in five games.) This year, in fact, marks the first time in the 15 seasons the Coyotes have spent in Phoenix that they actually won a playoff series. (As the Winnipeg Jets, the franchise won three World Hockey Association titles but, since joining the NHL for the 1979-80 season, only won two playoff series before moving to Phoenix — and never reached the Campbell/Western Conference finals.
OK, enough history… these two teams are really good. They’re the top two defensive teams in the playoffs (in terms of goals allowed per game) and two of the best on the penalty kill. The Kings are slightly better offensively (averaging three goals per game, compared to the Coyotes’ 2.64), but have a much worse power play (8.5 percent effective, compared to 16.1 percent for Phoenix).
In 12 postseason games — and most likely throughout the entire 2011-12 season — the Washington Capitals have swayed between playing brilliantly and being mistake-prone. These emotional and physical swings can happen from one period to the next, or even in the bat of an eyelash.
Last night’s 3-2 overtime loss to the New York Rangers brought the Caps’ postseason record to 6-6. They’ve scored 26 goals and allowed 27. They eliminated the defending Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins in seven games and were this close to being up three games to two on the top-seeded Rangers. In a flash, New York received a four-minute power play (on a double-minor to Joel Ward), scored two goals in less than two minutes of elapsed game time (over the end of regulation and the start of overtime) and snatched a victory away from the Caps.
Even so, many would argue that the Caps had no business even being that close. The Rangers out shot them, 38-18 overall and 17-4 in the first period. New York dominated play for most of the game and, even though they failed to unleash a shot on three power plays, the Rangers still converted when it mattered most. The Caps’ offense seems to be improving, but they still couldn’t get a shot on goal during several odd-man rushes last night.
I will be posting a series of articles looking at the Toronto Maple Leafs organizational depth by position. I started the series last week with goaltenders and I am continuing from the net out and going with defensemen next.
Defensemen on 2011-12 roster:
Cody Franson (RFA)
I will be posting a series of articles looking at the Toronto Maple Leafs organizational depth by position. Brian Burke says that he likes to build his teams from the net out so that is where I will be starting.
Goalies on 2011-12 roster:
Jonas Gustavsson (UFA)
Goaltending was a major issue for the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2011-12. The Maple Leafs signed James Reimer to a 3 year deal after a great stint with the big club in 2010-11 and Reimer looked to be the answer in goal for the Leafs. However, he struggled after suffering a concussion early in the season and never was able to get back on track. Gustavsson looked very good at times this past season but consistency continues to be his biggest issue. As he heads into unrestricted free agency we can be fairly certain that he won’t be back with the Maple Leafs for the 2012-13 season.
There is no doubt that the goaltender is the single most influential player on any hockey team and rivals that of a quarterback in football for how much impact the position has on the game. Although having good goaltending does not guarantee success, not having it is a recipe for failure.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have been a prime example of this over a seven year stretch in which they have not made the playoffs. Some will argue that the Maple Leafs just haven’t iced a good enough team to finish in the top eight in the Eastern Conference, which is a debatable point. What is not debatable is how inconsistent and below average their goaltending has been over that time period.
When James Reimer jumped into the Maple Leaf goal in the 2010-11 NHL season and posted an impressive 20-10-5 record with a 2.60 goals against average and a .921 save percentage it looked like the Maple Leafs finally had there answer in goal. Reimer looked so good in that he was rewarded with a 3 year deal at $1.8 million per season. Unfortunately Reimer suffered a concussion early in the season and never appeared to recover.
I continue my analysis of the 2nd round Stanley Cup playoff series by analyzing the playoff series between the St. Louis Blues and the Los Angeles (LA) Kings.
Both teams won their opening-round series in five games. While the Blues erased their 10-year series-winning playoff drought in impressive fashion by dispatching the San Jose Sharks, the 8th-seeded Kings pulled off the Stanley Cup playoff’s biggest upset by eliminating the top-seeded and President’s Trophy-winning Vancouver Canucks.
The Caps-Rangers series begins tomorrow and the Flyers-Devils match-up starts on Sunday.
I take a look at both series… No. 1 New York Rangers vs. No. 7 Washington Capitals — In the closing days of the regular season, many thought these teams would be meeting in the first round. Now, just about two weeks later, they’re facing off in the second round—the third time in the last four years that the Caps and Rangers have played each other in the postseason. In order for the Caps to earn a third consecutive series victory against the Rangers—and reach the conference finals for the first time since 1998 and only the third time in franchise history—they need to stick to the game plan: keeping the scores closer to 2-1 than 4-3 and milking Coach Dale Hunter’s system for all it’s worth.
No. 5 Philadelphia Flyers vs. No. 6 New Jersey Devils – The Flyers have been sitting around for almost a week wondering who they’re going to play next, while the Devils are coming off a double-overtime, game seven thriller last night. The Flyers spent six games beating up the Pittsburgh Penguins on the scoreboard, in the penalty box and pretty much everywhere else. That won’t be the case against the Devils, who are far better defensively than the Pens and won’t fall into the Flyers’ traps.
There is more on both series if you are interested, continue reading at fanspeak.com.
With the conclusion of the NHL Draft lottery last week, reality has begun to set in for Toronto Maple Leaf fans as they were not able to move up to the first pick in the upcoming draft. I thought I would take some time to look back at past fifth overall picks to see what kind of player the Maple Leafs might expect to get with this draft position.
I reviewed the last 33 NHL drafts from 1979 - 2011 and there are some very recognizable names that have been drafted with the fifth pick including Scott Stevens, Jaromir Jagr and Phil Kessel. There are also some names that I have never heard of like Daniel Dore.
In performing my analysis it was important that I made things as statistically driven as possible. To do this I developed the following player rating criteria:
100 – Star player: top 3 forward, top pair defenseman or an elite starting goalie.
50 – Good player: top 6 forward, top 4 defenseman or a starting goalie over multiple seasons.
25 – Role Player: forward or defenseman with 200+ games or a goalie with 100+ starts.
10 – Depth Player: forward or defenseman with 51-199 games or a goal with 51-99 starts.
5 – Minor League Player: forward or defenseman with 1-50 games or a goalie with 50 or less starts.
0 – Bust: drafted player with zero NHL games.
It wasn’t long ago that the Detroit Red Wings and San Jose Sharks were two of the best teams in the Western Conference — if not the league. Just last year, in fact, the Sharks were the No. 2 seed in the West and the Wings were No. 3. The Sharks eliminated the Wings in the Western Conference semifinals in seven games before losing to the Vancouver Canucks in the conference final. (Don’t worry, we’ll get to the Canucks in another post.) This year, though, the Wings were the No. 5 seed and the Sharks had to wait until the last couple days of the season to clinch a playoff spot — as the No. 7 seed.
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