by PuckStopsHere on 01/19/12 at 02:54 PM ET
One sabermetric issue that I am watching this season is how well is Brendan Morrison of the Calgary Flames doing. Brendan Morrison is a test case on the Corsi theory. The idea behind Corsi theory is that counting attempted shots both for and against is a very strong gage of puck possession. This is more useful that looking at goals scored based analysis because goals are strongly dependent upon shooting percentages and saves percentages of all the twelve players on the ice. This is something individual players have little control over in general. I have written about this here.
David Johnson of the Hockey Analysis website is a proponent of the contrary position. He has chosen Brendan Morrison of the Calgary Flames as a test case to make his argument. Before this season, Morrison looked good by Johnson’s goals based analysis and looked like a poor signing by conventional Corsi analysis.
Morrison is the kind of case that will have to be chosen to attempt to support Johnson’s method. Morrison is a player who has had a high PDO. This is the sum of the shooting percentage and saves percentage while a player is on the ice at even strength. This number by definition will have an average value of one for any player in the NHL. In general, players who have PDO values well above 1 have been lucky and players with PDO values well below 1 have been unlucky. This luck does not last. Johnson is forced to pick players who have been lucky in the past in order to find candidates to show how his system is better than Corsi. Morrison is an example of this.
So how is Brendan Morrison doing so far this year?
Morrison has suffered some injury problems and has only played in 26 games so far this season. He is currently out with an upper body injury. During the games Morrison has played, he has four goals and seven assists for 11 points. This isn’t particularly impressive. Morrison, who is a UFA this summer, looks likely to retire as no team is likely to offer him a new deal. This is the player David Johnson chose to be the example of how his system beats the conventional Corsi analysis. It is an example of how his system has failed. Corsi is far superior to the goal based analysis. Brendan Morrison is a good example to show this point.
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