Kukla's Korner

The Puck Stops Here

Correlation Of Fenwick Number With Team Points

In my most recent sabermetrics and hockey posts I have been discussing the Fenwick Number.  It is essentially a measure of puck possession that measures all 5 on 5 shots on goal and missed shots for and against when a given player is on the ice.  It is much like the Corsi Number.  Both Fenwick and Corsi Numbers are attempts to find a replacement for +/- ratings that will include more events and thus have higher signal to noise.  I have listed the players with the top 20 and worst 20 Fenwick Numbers as well as listing the team Fenwick Numbers.

Today I will address the question of whether the Fenwick or the Corsi Number better correlates with winning.

I have already shown the correlation between Corsi Number and team points is 0.626.  Corsi shows a pretty strong relation with winning hockey games.

Here is a plot of team Fenwick Numbers from 2008/09 against the point totals of the 30 NHL teams:

image

This graph shows that in general, teams that have higher Fenwick Numbers have more points.  The correlation between team Fenwick Number and points is 0.602.  This correlation is almost as strong as that of Corsi, but it is slightly worse.  Omitting blocked shots that are included in Corsi makes this rating slightly less of an indicator of winning hockey.  Therefore I will not bother with posting adjusted Fenwick Numbers as they are likely less strong indicators of successful hockey than the Corsi Number lists.  Perhaps this can be seen intuitively as MVP nominees Pavel Datsyuk and Alexander Ovechkin have worse rankings in terms of raw Fenwick Number then they do in raw Corsi Number or when Jay Bouwmeester (who struggles in all of these puck possession stats) comes closer to the league worst (2nd worst in the league) in raw Fenwick Number than he does in raw Corsi Number.

Fenwick Number is a useful measure and in some circumstances may be better than Corsi, but in general Corsi is the preferable measure of the two.  Nevertheless it is valuable to be introduced to both methods because some hockey statistics blogposts may use either one of the two.  When I continue to look at sabermetrics and hockey both concepts will be used at differing times.

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About The Puck Stops Here

imageThe Puck Stops Here was founded during the 2004/05 lockout as a place to rant about hockey. The original site contains over 1000 posts, some of which were also published on FoxSports.com.

Who am I? A diehard hockey fan.

Why am I blogging? I want to.

Why are you reading it? ???

Email: y2kfhl@hotmail.com