This is the end of my pre-season predictions. I will rank the East Conference teams in their predicted order of finish, as I did with the West Conference. My looks at the constituent divisions in the East Conference complete with blurbs on the individual teams can be found here for the Northeast Division, here for the Atlantic Division and here for the Southeast Division.
It will be interesting to see how close these predictions come to reality. They are my best guesses at this point. Trades, injuries, slumps, streaks and other unpredictable events will surely affect reality and impact the final standings.
Here are my picks for the East Conference:
With any division, these are my best guesses based on the information available today. There will be plenty of injuries, trades, slumps and streaks that will change things. I expect to look back and see some of my picks were correct and others missed the mark and that is part of the fun of playing this game.
As with any predictions, they are my best guess at what will happen in the next several months. It is a given that things will not happen exactly as predicted. There will be injuries, trades, slumps and streaks that are unpredicted at this point and they will change the results from these predictions.
At any rate, here is my best guess at the order of finish in the Atlantic Division:
My predictions continue. I am starting on the East Conference today by looking at the Northeast Division. Here are my West Conference predictions.
Predictions are always hard to do. Unpredicted injuries, trades, streaks and slumps will make these predictions inaccurate, but here is my best guess at the Northeast Division order of finish and my reasons behind them.
My pre-season predictions continue with the West Conference. I have already written blurbs for each team in the reports for their constituent divisions of the Northwest Division, Pacific Division and Central Division. Since I have already written blurbs on the teams, this will be my best guess as to the order of finish in the West Conference, but I will merely list the teams rather than write a new blurb.
As always, predictions are a best guess at the future. When unpredicted trades, injuries, slumps, streaks etc. occur, these predictions will be wrong. It is always fun to look back at the end of the season and see how close I got to what actually occurs.
Here is the second instalment of my pre-season predictions. The Northwest Division is here.
These predictions are a best guess at this point. We know that injuries, slumps, streaks, trades etc. will occur and this will change things in unpredictable ways. This is my best guess on the order of finish in the Pacific Division.
With the season approaching, it is time to start my pre-season predictions. I will start by forecasting the Northwest Division. Obviously, things are bound to change over the course of the season. Injuries, trades, slumps, breakout players are hard to forecast and when they happen, they are bound to affect the final standings of teams and more than likely, they will make my predictions incorrect. Nevertheless, here is what I expect as the order of finish in the Northwest Division:
One of the worst things about pre-season hockey is when players get injured in the still meaningless pre-season. This is especially bad when a player tries to make a name for himself to make a team with a cheapshot on another player. One of the more outrageous examples of this in the recent past is Steve Downie’s 2007 pre-season boarding of Dean McAmmond, which netted the then-rookie Downie a 20 game suspension.
Last night we had two suspendable offences. The worst was a kneeing incident where Pittsburgh’s Brooks Orpik took out Detroit’s Johan Franzen. Franzen is expected to be out for at least his next three games. Orpik was given a game misconduct for the play, but as of yet no suspension. Kneeing is always a dangerous play and in a pre-season game it is senseless.
Chicago defencemen Nick Boynton made a “throat-slashing” gesture toward Blair Jones of the Tampa Bay Lightning. For this he got a one game suspension and that one game is a regular season game. The fight came after Boynton hit Chris Durno knee-on-knee to provoke the fight.
In my sabermetrics and hockey posts, I have been looking at Tom Awad’s goals versus threshold system, which is an attempt to show the value of a player in one number when compared to that of a replacement level player. The replacement player is assumed to be always available via minor league call-ups, waivers or some other cheap method. I recently listed the worst 20 players in 2009/10 by goals versus threshold.
The worst seven players in this system were all goalies. This is because goaltenders can often have the biggest impact in a game, either positive or negative. A bad goaltender is relatively easy to pick out as he allows more goals than an average one would when facing the same number of shots. A poor position player is harder to find in this system. The system looks for a player who fails to score despite significant ice time. It also looks for a bad defensive player. In the goals versus threshold system, a bad defensive player is a player with a poor +/- rating on a weak defensive team. This is probably not the best way to select a poor defensive player, but this is what the system attempts.
The worst position player in the system last year is James Sheppard of the Minnesota Wild. I think it is instructive to take a look at why he is selected for this dishonor.
About The Puck Stops Here
Who am I? A diehard hockey fan.
Why am I blogging? I want to.
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