Since my last sabermetrics and hockey post was the top 20 Corsi rates, it is logical to continue with the worst 20. Corsi ratings are the difference in the number of shots directed at goal (shots on goal, missed shots and blocked shots) by a team and their opposition in 5 on 5 situations. They are a strong measurement of puck possession, as a team with possession of the puck tends to shoot a lot. As we are looking at rates in this post, each player is normalized by the number of 5 on 5 minutes that he plays. Thus players who do not play many minutes a game and thus cannot get a large Corsi by counting methods may appear here. In fact this is more likely on a worst players list than a bets players list, as teams will want to play their best players as much as possible while hiding their worst players.
The act of signing restricted free agents to offer sheets is getting more common under the current CBA. Before the lockout, it was pointless. You would sign a player and in almost all cases, his original team would match the salary and all you managed to do was run up NHL salaries and create a higher salaried comparable player for those on your team. Now that limited salary cap space makes it more likely that other teams cannot match offer sheets (particularly if they are used on teams nearing the salary cap for next season), there is a better chance of actually obtaining the player you sign to the offer sheet and even if you do not get him, you have even further reduced the salary cap flexibility of a rival. I do not believe that there really was a “gentleman’s agreement” to not sign players to offer sheets. It is an idea born out of the media failing to explain the lack of offer sheets before the lockout and upon Brian Burke’s bluster when Anaheim was hit with the Dustin Penner offer sheet.
With that in mind, the San Jose Sharks have signed Niklas Hjalmarsson to a four year offer sheet that will pay $14 million.
I think it is usually more meaningful to look at counting stats than rate stats when determining the best players in the NHL. As such I have listed the top 20 and worst 20 player’s individual Corsi Ratings from last season, where Corsi is the difference between the shots directed at goal (on goal, missed net and blocked) for a player’s team and the opposition when the player is on the ice in 5 on 5 situations. This is a strong gage of puck possession in NHL games.
Throughout this process, commenter GoPens has been asking about why I like counting stats over rate stats. I think the best way to explain this is to give the top 20 players by Corsi rate (Corsi per minute) and compare with the top 20 by counting stats.
Yesterday it was announced that Evgeni Nabokov signed a four year contract with SKA St Petersburg in the KHL. Nabokov is a good NHL goalie. He was named to the First Team All Star in 2008. He is better than many goalies who are employed in the NHL, including many starters. He is a better goalie than either of the pair his former NHL team, the San Jose Sharks intend to use next year. There should be little controversy in claiming he is a better goalie than Antero Niittymaki or Thomas Greiss.
If Nabokov is such a good goalie why was he pushed out of the NHL? Largely it comes down to a finite number of NHL jobs available. The salary cap has forced teams to economize in some positions and the prime goaltending jobs filled up with players who will be paid less than the price Nabokov demanded (and deserved based on his past history). When jobs began to be filled and Nabokov saw other big name goalies in Marty Turco and Jose Theodore remaining unemployed as well, he opted to return to his homeland to play in the KHL.
I am continuing my look at sabermetrics and hockey today. Yesterday, I listed the players with the top 20 Corsi ratings as counting numbers and today I will list the worst 20. Corsi is a measure of the difference between shots directed at goal (on goal, missed net and blocked) by a player’s team and his opponents. It is used as an alternative for +/- because it encompasses far more events than only goals scored and is an indicator of puck possession.
The players scoring worst in Corsi Ratings are poor at puck possession. They also likely play on teams that are poor at puck possession and are often used in defensive roles, where it is expected that the opposition team will most likely control the puck. While being on this list is not a sign of a good player, it is not necessarily a sign of a poor NHL player. Other factors can have come into play to keep the rating low.
I am continuing looking at sabermetrics and hockey, by looking at Corsi Numbers. I will not spend as long on them this summer as i did last year, but I want to look at the league’s best and worst while looking at them a few different ways.
A Corsi Number is a total of all shots directed at the net (whether on goal, blocked or missing the net) for minus those taken against while a player is on the ice in 5 on 5 situations. The best source for Corsi Ratings online is behind the net, but it tends to look at things on a rate (per minute) basis and I find it is often more useful to look at counting totals over the full season. They tend to better show who had a good season, as opposed to who played well in a more limited situation.
When one hockey team is run by the NHL and financed by the other 29 clubs, every move they make will be looked at under a microscope that doesn’t exist for the other clubs. If they make a move that looks too good for another club, does this show NHL favoritism to that club? This is especially a question if that club is struggling financially and may be receiving NHL aid (such as Tampa Bay last year when Phoenix traded for Radim Vrbata) On the other hand; if Phoenix is too active it also looks bad. Why should a team on NHL welfare be acquiring more payroll than necessary to satisfy the NHL salary floor? Why are NHL team paying for somebody to potentially defeat them? This happened last year at trade deadline time.
Several people were making top ten lists around January 1st to celebrate the bests and worsts of the last decade (2000-2009). In hockey, I think a decade is better defined as the 2000/01 season until the 2009/10 season and now that it is concluded, I will make my top ten list. Here are the ten best players of the last decade.
Martin Brodeur He firmly set himself up in the debate for the best goaltender of all time in this decade by becoming the all time winner in shutouts and wins. He won the Vezina trophy four times and the Stanley Cup once in this decade. He was chosen as a goalie for Team Canada in all three Olympiads in this decade. Brodeur clearly established himself as the top goalie in the last decade. Even as he is 38 and clearly slowing down in the final year, he was a Vezina nominee.
We are into the third day of free agency in the NHL and things are beginning to slow down. It is time to ask how good a team can get if it is built through free agency. To attempt to do that, I picked an all star team of the 2009 UFA’s to be and another one this year. Last year’s team has 21 legitimate members. I attempted to put 23 on it but in the hours between my posting of the team and the opening of the free agent season Henrik and Daniel Sedin re-signed with Vancouver and were taken out of the mix. Thus the team is slightly smaller than intended and it takes a hit in quality as those two were the best two players on it.
Here is my 2009 All UFA Team along with their salary hit and key numbers:
When Cliff Viner and Stu Siegel bought the Florida Panthers outright from Alan Cohen (where they had been minority partners), I cautioned that this may be a desperate financial move by people who are unfit financially to own an NHL team. I was criticized by Stu Hackel of the New York Times Slapshot blog for misreading the situation, but it is looking as though I am correct.
The first major change the new owners are bringing into Florida is a slashed payroll and that is consistent with them not having the money to properly finance their team, especially as it is second to the Phoenix Coyotes in recent financial losses.
About The Puck Stops Here
Who am I? A diehard hockey fan.
Why am I blogging? I want to.
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