Kukla's Korner

The NHL’s 1st Quarter MVP?

So who is your MVP for the NHL’s 1st quarter?  In order to take a comprehensive look at which players have impacted team performance the most, I’d like to present my own take on the Top 30 skaters so far.  This analysis combines even strength, special teams, durability and penalty drawing/taking information in what I hope you’ll agree is a more complete picture than we’ve typically seen when it comes to comparing individual stars.

In light of yesterday’s discussion on the traditional Plus/Minus statistic, what I’ve done here is utilize the Rating stat from Behind the Net, which describes the net impact of an individual’s on-ice presence to team Goals For and Against values.  Typically, this is isolate to 5-on-5, 5-on-4, or 4-on-5 action, with figures prorated to 60 minutes of playing time.

This view, however, incorporates Games Played and Time on Ice into the mix, to come up with a Rating Impact value for each situation (5-on-5 Imp, 5-on-4 Imp, 4-on-5 Imp) [edit: updated for clarity], which expresses the sum total of both offensive and defensive contributions in balance.  All three situations are brought together in the Total Rat Imp column, with the final columns on the right bringing Penalty Plus/Minus into the formula.  Current (through the games of November 20th) values are in the PPM column, and PPM Impact is calculated by assigning a value of 0.153 goals for each net penalty drawn, a figure which comes from an analysis done by Alan Ryder last year, which also includes the offensive and defensive aspects of a power play (the PP team is more likely to score, and the opponent is less likely).  What we’re left with is Total Impact…

 NAMETEAMPOSGP5/5 TOI/G5/5 Rate5/5 Imp5/4 TOI/G5/4 Rate5/4 Imp4/5 TOI/G4/5 Rate4/5 ImpTot Rate ImpPPMPPM ImpTot Imp
 ALEXANDER OVECHKINWSHLW1715.33.5815.525.377.2311.001.550.430.1926.7110.15326.86
 MIKE GREENWSHD1815.831.999.455.514.747.842.597.505.8323.11-3-0.45922.65
 ALEXANDER SEMINWSHLW1611.934.7515.114.300.981.122.208.364.9021.1410.15321.29
 DANIEL ALFREDSSONOTTRW1813.191.254.955.066.579.971.936.203.5918.5150.76519.27
 COREY PERRYANARW2013.821.527.003.339.9211.010.027.610.0518.060018.06
 SIDNEY CROSBYPITC1915.171.356.495.006.3210.011.092.590.8917.3920.30617.69
 JAROME IGINLACGYRW2015.140.331.675.527.0612.990.186.260.3815.03101.5316.56
 CHRIS PRONGERANAD2016.290.110.603.9713.9218.423.78-2.00-2.5216.50-3-0.45916.04
 DERICK BRASSARDCBJC1810.433.3810.583.444.855.010.066.680.1215.7020.30616.01
 MIKE RICHARDSPHIC1714.422.449.973.550.300.302.765.464.2714.5481.22415.76
 PATRIK BERGLUNDSTLC1411.55.815.561.94-2.21-
 NIKOLAI ZHERDEVNYRRW2112.723.0613.622.611.461.330.082.790.0815.03-1-0.15314.88
 TOMAS HOLMSTROMDETLW1711.832.819.423.085.334.650.013.930.0114.0840.61214.69
 EVGENI MALKINPITC1914.412.410.955.283.445.750.99-9.02-2.8313.8840.61214.49
 SEAN O’DONNELLLAKD1816.592.3211.550.32-4.84-0.463.533.443.6414.72-2-0.30614.42
 MARIAN HOSSADETRW1812.742.7710.592.994.173.741.670.180.0914.420014.42
 SAKU KOIVUMTLC1711.492.287.423.256.676.141.02-0.31-0.0913.4730.45913.93
 DOUG WEIGHTNYIC1812.831.455.584.834.656.740.3313.631.3513.6710.15313.82
 JASON SPEZZAOTTC1914.490.522.395.215.849.640.2020.871.3213.3420.30613.65
 WILLIE MITCHELLVAND2016.542.1812.020.35-6.04-0.704.341.782.5813.89-2-0.30613.58
 RYAN GETZLAFANAC1914.310.562.543.3710.3010.990.077.970.1813.71-2-0.30613.40
 JASON ARNOTTNSHC1512.361.314.054.168.669.010.215.470.2913.340013.34
 SHELDON SOURAYEDMD1815.720.94.244.475.277.073.691.992.2013.51-3-0.45913.06
 NICKLAS BACKSTROMWSHC1913.762.079.023.792.412.890.276.590.5612.4830.45912.93
 ZACH PARISENJDLW1815.32.1810.013.490.981.030.219.970.6311.6671.07112.73
 PAVEL DATSYUKDETC1813.012.369.213.162.512.382.440.040.0311.6271.07112.69
 JEAN-PIERRE DUMONTNSHRW1812.960.823.194.247.8610.000.14-18.61-0.7812.4010.15312.56
 PAUL KARIYASTLLW1112.872.696.353.869.897.000.25-16.06-0.7412.61-1-0.15312.46
 KIM JOHNSSONMIND1718.081.879.582.092.511.493.721.541.6212.69-2-0.30612.38
 DREW DOUGHTYLAKD1816.12.6712.904.21-1.48-1.871.364.401.8012.82-5-0.76512.06

So what do these numbers tell us?  First of all, if I’m a Washington Capitals fan, I’m terrified of anything happening to the trio of Ovechkin, Green, and Semin.  If I’m a Calgary or Philadelphia fan, I’m proud of captains like Jarome Iginla and Mike Richards, whose composure in drawing penalties adds a significant boost to their team.

Feel free to run through these results and chime in with your thoughts.  One point I’d like to add is what this really measures is how an individual stands in relation to the rest of his team (the “who means the most” side of the MVP debate).  A theoretical team made up of identical players, no matter how good or bad, would come up with zeroes across the Behind the Net ratings.

Filed in: NHL Statistical Analysis, | On the Forecheck | Permalink


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