from Travis Yost of TSN,

While a five-forward power play sounds like a unicorn against a traditional four-man penalty kill, we have seen spots where coaches have experimented.

Just last season, the Philadelphia Flyers tried out a five-man unit in a game against the Minnesota Wild. The New York Rangers, Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers also tried it in spots. Sadly, we have only seen it in very limited quantities over the years (and yes, that’s years – there are great examples of teams from two decades ago trying these setups out, usually out of desperation), which makes it very hard to test its feasibility.

We do have access to some underlying data points that might suggest it’s worth experimenting with. Consider: the shift from three forwards to four forwards saw a spike in shot volume of about 12 per cent and an increase in shooting percentage by about 13 per cent. Even when controlling for the drop in team save percentage, four-forward lineups generate about 1.4 net goals more than their three-forward counterparts do.

Then, start considering what we are seeing in other game states. At even strength, a significant portion of the increase in goal scoring can be tied to forwards converting on a higher percentage of their opportunities, whereas defenders – impeded by natural shooting talent, distance from the net and other factors – haven’t seen a change in their conversion rates for over a decade.

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