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Why The Sharks Need The 3rd Seed

from Brad Weimer of CSNBayArea,

Let’s start at the beginning—since this playoff format was introduced in 1994, teams seeded 7 or 8 (where the Sharks will probably be if they don’t win the division) have only made it out of the first round 35.2% of the time.  Yep, that’s it.  Now that’s a lot greater percentage than the NBA (teams seeded 6-8 only have a winning percentage of 13.9% during that same period) but still not exactly good odds of just making it past the opening round.

By contrast the teams with the 3 seed have made it out of the first round 64.7% of the time.  That is almost double.  It doesn’t get much better as we move forward.

Now we know what you’re saying, “The Sharks goal isn’t just to get out of the first round, it’s to win a Stanley Cup.”  THAT is where the numbers get even worse for the lower seeded teams.

PERCENTAGE OF TEAMS TO MAKE CONFERENCE FINALS (since 1994)

3rd Seed: 26.4%
7-8 Seeds: 8.8%

With LESS chances (there are only two 3 seeds per year vs. four 7-8 seeded teams) the 3 seeds make the conference finals over THREE TIMES as much as teams seeded 7 or 8.

PERCENTAGE OF TEAMS TO MAKE STANLEY CUP FINALS (since 1994)

3rd Seed: 14.7%
7-8 Seeds: 7.3%

more

Filed in: NHL Teams, San Jose Sharks, | KK Hockey | Permalink
 

Comments

Avatar

The reason the lower seeds have less success is because generally, the lower seeded teams are worse teams than the higher seeded ones.  A 3rd seed that has a lower point total than the 6th seed logically has almost the same chance as the 7th seed, not the same chance as the “average” 3rd seed, which should have a higher point total than at least the 5th if not the 4th seed.

Posted by Kel on 03/28/12 at 09:19 PM ET

Matt Fry's avatar

Don’t tell me the odds.

Logically, every team has a what, 6% chance of winning the Cup?  Past stats don’t dictate how every season will play out.  Kel is correct.  This year, I don’t think Pacific teams have much chance of winning the Cup at all, but the chance remains/ I’m hoping the Sharks are just playing their usual playoff hockey in the regular season, then play their strong regular season hockey in the playoffs (if they make it).

Posted by Matt Fry from Winnipeg on 03/29/12 at 01:11 AM ET

statelouis26's avatar

I’m hoping the sharks end up at the bottom of the tank when the regular season is over.

Posted by statelouis26 from Detroit, MI on 03/29/12 at 09:47 PM ET

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Paul Kukla founded Kukla’s Korner in 2005 and the site has since become the must-read site on the ‘net for all the latest happenings around the NHL.

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