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Understanding Corsi

from Tyler Dello at Sportsnet,

People who follow hockey intuitively understand that there’s an element of chance in winning or losing.

If you sit down and watch the highlights from a busy night around the NHL, you’ll generally notice that there are a lot of close games; 68 per cent of last season’s contests were decided by two goals or fewer. Moreover, there are a lot of plays in which a fortunate bounce or a puck hitting a skate an inch to the left or right, results in a goal being scored — or not.

Scoring is a product of two things: the rate at which shots are taken and the rate at which they actually go in. People with an interest in hockey stats tend to measure this by looking at shot-attempts for (goals, shots on goal, missed shots and blocked shots) divided by total shot attempts.

This produces the oft-mocked but little understood Corsi stat.


Filed in: NHL Teams, | KK Hockey | Permalink


Primis's avatar

My main problem with both Corsi and Fenwick are that they lose their value come postseason, when checking gets tighter and shots get crazier.

I’ve seen the Red Wings in the playoffs too many years and watched them absolutely assault the opposing goalie and still lose.  In the playoffs, a hot goalie is a real, tangible thing that can trump literally EVERYTHING else, and a hot goalie renders both stats (as I understand them) pretty useless.

If a stat loses it value come playoff time, you end up wondering how useful it actually is then.

Posted by Primis on 10/11/13 at 10:22 PM ET

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Paul Kukla founded Kukla’s Korner in 2005 and the site has since become the must-read site on the ‘net for all the latest happenings around the NHL.

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