from Dave Hodge of TSN,

Forget everything you’ve watched since the NHL season began on October 6. That’s hard to do because you’ve seen it with your eyes and it all made sense as the season progressed. Ignoring the evidence would be horribly wrong for jurors, but it’s essential for hockey fans who like to call themselves experts.

This doesn’t mean you can’t pick the Washington Capitals to win the Stanley Cup, but it does mean you shouldn’t do it simply because they were 11 points better than the next-best Dallas Stars.

The Capitals are unproven in the playoffs. They have been highly-regarded Stanley Cup contenders before, but not like this, and this brings its own form of playoff pressure. They are expected to breeze past the Philadelphia Flyers in the first round, but there have been bigger playoff shockers than a Philly upset of Washington. If the Capitals advance and happen to meet the New York Rangers in Round 2, they will be reminded of playoff losses to the Rangers in 2012, 2013 and again last season. If they should face Pittsburgh in the second round, their 1-7 playoff mark, all time, versus the Penguins will be mentioned prominently.

The Capitals have home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs. One home-ice loss at the start of a series removes that edge. And two home-ice wins to start a series do not represent an advantage if they are followed by two road losses.

Another rule of thumb? Do not conclude anything about a best-of-seven series until you’ve seen games played in two arenas.

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