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More Parise To Pittsburgh Talk

from Sam Carchidi of Broad Street Bull,

For the Flyers, the bad news coming out of Pittsburgh on Thursday was that superstar Sidney Crosby had signed a 12-year, $104.4 million extension, a cap hit of $8.7 million _ the same as this season.

It’s bad news because Crosby, arguably the NHL’s best player when healthy, probably could have gotten a shorter deal….and more money per season.

By stretching out the contract, the Penguins have plenty of cap space for some moves, and it appears they will not be outbid for the best free agent on the free-agent market, Devils left winger Zach Parise.

You know, the guy the Flyers (and many others) covet.

Crosby and Parise have been close friends for several years. Crosby even shared a suite with Parise’s family at the Stanley Cup Finals.

If you connect the dots, it seems a good bet that they will be on the same line together next season.

continued

Filed in: NHL Teams, New Jersey Devils, Pittsburgh Penguins, | KK Hockey | Permalink
  Tags: zach+parise

Comments

Wings_in_NYC's avatar

I can’t see Parise going to a division rival like the pens. I’m thinking he stays put.

Posted by Wings_in_NYC on 06/29/12 at 11:24 AM ET

Nathan's avatar

Crosby’s contract also has the effect of setting the price on Parise somewhere that is half-way reasonable.

Posted by Nathan from the scoresheet! on 06/29/12 at 11:30 AM ET

Oz_Santwyk's avatar

The contract is a retirement deal, but at least it’s at 36 when most players start losing their pop. I like this deal compared to say the deals Zetterberg and Hossa got which takes them well past their sale by date. Howevever, if he becomes mush brain then it’s a moot point.

The flexibility it gives the Pens is invaluable. Not only does it help them to sign Parise but it also sets the bar for Malkin for next year. I’m sure Malkin will get paid more but it won’t be a whole lot more due to Crosby showing the way by taking a big discount of what he could have asked for.

Posted by Oz_Santwyk from Perth Australia on 06/29/12 at 11:52 AM ET

Avatar

So what you are saying is Crosby is in a sign and trade to the Devils? Malkin will get Kovalchuk as a winger and the Devils will retain Parise with the addition of his BFF Crosby. Wow, no wonder the Devils haven’t signed Parise yet, they just needed to know how much would be left once Sidney signed. OR I AM OFF BASE?

Posted by hockey1919 from mid-atlantic on 06/29/12 at 11:57 AM ET

Keyser S.'s avatar

A 12 year contract? Does anybody really think he’s completely healthy? Pitts management makes some bad decisions. They let him come back way too early after the concussion and now they sign him to a 12 year contract after missing the better part of 2 seasons. (Scratching head)

Posted by Keyser S. on 06/29/12 at 12:31 PM ET

shazam88's avatar

^^ Well I seriously doubt anyone, including Penguin management and ownership, expects Crosby to play another 12 years.  Risk comes with the territory, and that’s certainly part of the reason that Crosby signed for less dollars per year.  The contract is partly insured so it’s not a catastrophe if he plays another 4 years and then is forced to retire due to injury.

Posted by shazam88 from SoCal on 06/29/12 at 12:37 PM ET

cementslinger's avatar

Pittsburgh has only 14 million.  They only have 11 forwards, 5 defensemen and 2 goalies.  Unless Parise is gonna take a discount, I don’t see him with the Pens. 

Sure, Crosby took a discount.  Doesn’t mean Parise will. Nor Malkin in a couple years.

Posted by cementslinger from Midland MI on 06/29/12 at 12:38 PM ET

Primis's avatar

OK, talking seriously here for a second.

Here’s my problem with the idea of Parise going to the Pens:  the Pens blue line is just as bad or worse than DET’s.  PIT has Crosby?  DET has Datsyuk, the best all-around forward probably in the world.  PIT has Fleury, DET has Howard.

My best bet on Parise is that he might wait to see where Suter goes, if for no other reason than to get a better bead on what team has a better shot at winning.

So unless PIT can figure out a way to land Suter and Parise, I don’t know that they have as good a shot as some others.  Friendship/buddy thing aside, Suter’s destination is a good indication of who is becoming a real contender, assuming Parise really wants to win and Suter goes somewhere with enough cap space to get both.

I still say at the end of the day PIT ends up trading for Nash because he’s already locked up long-term, is a big-bodied power forward winger that would probably wreak havoc in the East, and because they’ll have to move bodies to CBS to get him (and thus free up more cap room).  Quite frankly I think Nash is the better option for PIT anyways.

Posted by Primis on 06/29/12 at 02:21 PM ET

Avatar

Pittsburgh has only 14 million.  They only have 11 forwards, 5 defensemen and 2 goalies.  Unless Parise is gonna take a discount, I don’t see him with the Pens. 

Posted by cementslinger from Midland MI on 06/29/12 at 11:38 AM ET

Actually they have 8 defensemen signed to NHL deals, not including 20 year old or younger prospects.

The holes Pittsburgh has to fill are 1 top 6 winger, 1 top 4 d and 2 fourth liners. Assuming the 4th liners make ~750k a piece (probably will be less), assuming the top 4 D isn’t given to Simon Despres (which it might be) and assuming Martin isn’t traded (he probably will be), that gives them $12.5 million to slot to the winger situation and D situation.

That’s way more than enough to ink Parise, who’s never been a rough negotiation money-wise at any point in his career. Even if he does bank something crazy, it’s not going to be a $12 million AAV.

Now, that’s not enough to sign Suter AND Parise (unless Martin is moved), but I’m not sure what part of “Suter only wants to play in the Western conference” columnists in Philadelphia are having trouble understanding. Besides, Wideman at $5+ basically sets Ryan Suter up to be the highest paid player in the league, just as Crosby at $8.7 probably puts something of a glass ceiling on what forwards are likely to get.

Posted by larry from pitt on 06/29/12 at 02:32 PM ET

YYZerman's avatar

Posted by Oz_Santwyk from Perth Australia on 06/29/12 at 10:52 AM ET

I couldn’t disgree with you more. Both Hossa and Zetterberg’s contracts are better for a couple of reasons. They both delcine to in dollars at the age of 36-37 to an avg of 2 mil per season. So pretty much the same as Crosby but are much better because their cap hits are 2.7 and 3.5 million less. I also think, and correct me if I’m wrong but they can also retire at those ages and the cap hit will go away so those last years won’t count anyway. So for about the same time frame and money, Hossa and Zetterberg are costing their teams a player or two less per year.

And the whole Malkin taking less money or the same because Crosby set the bar is also crazy. Why would he take less when he has proven to be if not better but at least on par with Crosby? I remember this happening in Detroit with Yzerman and Fedorov. Fedorov didn’t care what Yzerman made or didn’t make he wanted what he thought he was worth and look how that turned out. Obviously they are the same but I wouldn’t hold my breath thinking Malkin will take the same or less just because Crosby did.

Posted by YYZerman from Detroit, Michigan on 06/29/12 at 02:33 PM ET

Leo_Racicot's avatar

Posted by larry from pitt on 06/29/12 at 01:32 PM ET

Curious to hear your opinion on where Martin will be moved to given his limited NTC?

Posted by Leo_Racicot on 06/29/12 at 02:35 PM ET

Avatar

Here’s my problem with the idea of Parise going to the Pens:  the Pens blue line is just as bad or worse than DET’s

I don’t know if I’d go that far. The top pairing and bottom pairings are far more effective. Letang, while producing more offense, is also not the liability in his own end that Kronwall is and Niskanen’s not the walking lobotomy that Kyle Quincey seems to be. It’s really just the Martin pairing that can’t accomplish anything (no matter who the other guy is).

All those goals given up to Philly have a lot more to do with
A. Fleury melting down
B. Systemic failures in which Flyer forwards were hitting the Pittsburgh line with too much speed
C. Paul Martin
D. Complete failure of the penalty kill

than the blueline, writ large.

On the bright side, assuming Detroit gets close to whatever boneheaded offer Craig Leopold makes to Suter, he would have to be an absolute fool to go anywhere else (Pittsburgh’s got money, but not enough to get in a bidding war for a slot they only need a body in for about 2 more years until it’s filled internally).

Posted by larry from pitt on 06/29/12 at 02:42 PM ET

Avatar

Curious to hear your opinion on where Martin will be moved to given his limited NTC?

Posted by Leo_Racicot on 06/29/12 at 01:35 PM ET

Nashville or Minn. Possibly Tampa. Martin can list 8 teams to refuse a trade to before the season. I can’t imagine all three of these (or, really, any of them) would be on that list

Posted by larry from pitt on 06/29/12 at 02:46 PM ET

J.J. from Kansas's avatar

Letang, while producing more offense, is also not the liability in his own end that Kronwall is

I think a lot of the idea of how good Kronwall is at defense is left over from 2009.  Kronwall is better than Letang in his own end.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/29/12 at 02:56 PM ET

Oz_Santwyk's avatar

YYZ the cap hit stays the same for the entire length of the contract. So Zetts and Hossa money going down in the last few years has no relevance to cap it only has an effect in the pocket of the org.

I believe the cap hit does go away for both as they were signed young enough. I think you have to be over a certain age for the cap to remain if they retire.

Also, Malkin has already proved he’s willing to take less. He could have got 10 plus when he signed his last contract and instead took 8.7 to be the same as Crosby. So on that basis, I think I’m right for assuming he will continue with taking less, now maybe not 8.7 but still less than the 14 he could ask for. My bet is he’ll remain under the 10 mark.

Posted by Oz_Santwyk from Perth Australia on 06/29/12 at 03:13 PM ET

Oz_Santwyk's avatar

JJ, Letang was a Norris candidate until his concussions ruled his charge for that moot. Letang wasn’t the same defensively or offensively after the injury and I suspect he wasn’t 100% for the rest of the year. Kronwall is far from Letang’s level.

Posted by Oz_Santwyk from Perth Australia on 06/29/12 at 03:15 PM ET

YYZerman's avatar

JJ, Letang was a Norris candidate until his concussions ruled his charge for that moot.

Posted by Oz_Santwyk from Perth Australia on 06/29/12 at 02:15 PM ET

Mike Green was a finalist for the Vezn….Norris. That doesn’t help your point.

Posted by YYZerman from Detroit, Michigan on 06/29/12 at 03:19 PM ET

J.J. from Kansas's avatar

JJ, Letang was a Norris candidate until his concussions ruled his charge for that moot. Letang wasn’t the same defensively or offensively after the injury and I suspect he wasn’t 100% for the rest of the year. Kronwall is far from Letang’s level.

Posted by Oz_Santwyk from Perth Australia on 06/29/12 at 02:15 PM ET

Right, because of his offensive output.  Erik Karlsson just won the Norris, so the argument that Norris Trophy = awesome at defense doesn’t work.

Kronwall is not as good offensively as Letang, but he is better defensively.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/29/12 at 03:19 PM ET

J.J. from Kansas's avatar

I believe the cap hit does go away for both as they were signed young enough. I think you have to be over a certain age for the cap to remain if they retire.

More insight from the guy who says he’s read the CBA numerous times.

yes, none of Zetterberg’s, Hossa’s, or Crosby’s deals are affected by the 35+ clause, which says that if a player has a multi-year deal that takes effect after he’s 35, his cap hit remains on the team’s books even if he retires.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/29/12 at 03:41 PM ET

Avatar

I think a lot of the idea of how good Kronwall is at defense is left over from 2009.  Kronwall is better than Letang in his own end.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/29/12 at 01:56 PM ET

Kronwall’s not Wideman, but neither is he good in his own end, let alone even close to as good as Letang in his own end. If Kronwall’s on the ice, the other team’s putting way more pucks in the net than if anyone who’s not Kronwall (or Quincey, who’s numbers are skewed by playing on Colorado for most of the year) is on the ice. While true in 2009, that hasn’t changed at all in the intervening years. Only quincey is worse, and his numbers are skewed by spending more than half the year on a garbage team.

Letang doesn’t have anything like this type of problem.

Posted by larry from pitt on 06/29/12 at 03:44 PM ET

Leo_Racicot's avatar

Kronwall is far from Letang’s level.
Posted by Oz_Santwyk from Perth Australia on 06/29/12 at 02:15 PM ET

Thanks for the tip, though I have little idea what you are using to define the scale you allude to nor how large the gap that you speak of between Letang and Kronwall really is.  Based on previous posts, our opinions need to be centered on the following comment:

Letang, while producing more offense, is also not the liability in his own end that Kronwall is

Letang is a special talent and like most 25 year old NHL defensemen, he still has extremely raw defensive skills.  I think he’s awful when he’s asked to be the primary chaser on the boards, he coughs the puck up quite a bit when he’s under fire behind his MAF’s line.  Like Martin and Michalek, he has yet to find a comfortable spot on the roster in the shadow of Gonchar, Eaton and Scuderi vacancies.

Provided Shero gets himself out of his two incredible signings from the summer of 2010, I’m sure that Letang’s defensive maturity will continue its upward trajectory and he’ll be casted to the best of his abilities (and hopefully he’s a more healthy player as a result because like Kronwall, he’s a lot of fun to watch).

All of that said, I’m all ears on being educated by somebody who watches their favorite team far more than I yet can make structured points on how this player and a defensemen from another NHL team can carry themselves in their own.

Posted by Leo_Racicot on 06/29/12 at 03:46 PM ET

J.J. from Kansas's avatar

Letang doesn’t have anything like this type of problem.

Posted by larry from pitt on 06/29/12 at 02:44 PM ET

Except the problem that defensemen have a lot less control over their own shot differentials and Kris Letang spent a high portion of his time playing behind the Art Ross winner.

Letang’s job on the ice in his own end is to not screw it up while Orpik and Malkin do the heavy lifting. By-and-large, that’s fairly close to Niklas Kronwall’s job, except he was less-sheltered by Brad Stuart and Henrik Zetterberg.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/29/12 at 03:57 PM ET

WingsFaninCO's avatar

More insight from the guy who says he’s read the CBA numerous times.

+1

Posted by WingsFaninCO on 06/29/12 at 04:01 PM ET

Avatar

Letang’s job on the ice in his own end is to not screw it up while Orpik and Malkin do the heavy lifting. By-and-large, that’s fairly close to Niklas Kronwall’s job, except he was less-sheltered by Brad Stuart and Henrik Zetterberg.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/29/12 at 02:57 PM ET

That’s not at all correct.

Bylsma doesn’t deploy his players in 5 man units (or even attempt to). He also doesn’t chase matchups on D, beyond sheltering the Engelland/Niskanen unit and deploying whichever of the other two pairs are fresher, regardless of the game situation (I feel this is a mistake). Nor does he have static pairs. Letang had 4 separate partners last year.

And finally, Malkin doesn’t do any heavy lifting. He starts in the offensive zone against the other teams worst players as much as possible and generates about a bazillion shots from there. His presence on the ice also goes hand-in-hand with the other team scoring more goals as well, like Kronwall’s, unlike Letang’s.


Posted by Leo_Racicot on 06/29/12 at 02:46 PM ET

Not sure what you’re asking me. If you’re asking me how I came to the conclusion that Kronwall’s not very effective in his own end compared to Letang, it’s due to the outcomes of their play in their own zone. Are you asking me that, or are you asking me why? Or are you asking me if Kronwall’s a net liability as a player? He’s not, unless he’s being asked to be the best defensive player on a first or second pairing and the expectation is his team’s not going to get lit up. In that context, he’s a liability in his own end.

Posted by larry from pitt on 06/29/12 at 04:29 PM ET

redxblack's avatar

I think we can all agree that Kyle Quincey IS a walking lobotomy.

Posted by redxblack from Akron Ohio on 06/29/12 at 04:34 PM ET

WingsFaninCO's avatar

I think we can all agree that Kyle Quincey IS a walking lobotomy.

Posted by redxblack from Akron Ohio on 06/29/12 at 03:34 PM ET

No we can’t.  He is just the current scapegoat based on 18 games (i think that’s the number).  I find it hard to believe that Kenny, Jimmy, and Babcock all misjudged him to the extent that is portrayed by some of the commenters here.  I’m not going to argue about it at this point, but I want another half season (following a training camp and preseason) to make a fair evaluation.

Posted by WingsFaninCO on 06/29/12 at 04:41 PM ET

J.J. from Kansas's avatar

Bylsma doesn’t deploy his players in 5 man units (or even attempt to). He also doesn’t chase matchups on D

Yet Letang’s use has him out there with Orpik and Malkin more than anybody on the team outside of Kunitz.

Malkin doesn’t play defense though? Well that’s new.  I’ll take a PIttsburgh fan’s word for it, I guess.  Besides, If Malkin starts in the offensive zone against other teams’ worst players and Malkin is the forward who shares in most of Letang’s ice time, wouldn’t Letang also start in the offensive zone against other teams’ worst players?  Of course his shot differentials would benefit from that.

His presence on the ice also goes hand-in-hand with the other team scoring more goals as well, like Kronwall’s, unlike Letang’s.

Compared to their respective teams. Flat comparison has Kronwalls GA-ON/60 as lower than Letang’s.  Teams score less against Kronwall than they do against Letang.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/29/12 at 04:42 PM ET

J.J. from Kansas's avatar

No we can’t.  He is just the current scapegoat based on 18 games (i think that’s the number).  I find it hard to believe that Kenny, Jimmy, and Babcock all misjudged him to the extent that is portrayed by some of the commenters here.  I’m not going to argue about it at this point, but I want another half season (following a training camp and preseason) to make a fair evaluation.

Posted by WingsFaninCO on 06/29/12 at 03:41 PM ET

Yep. This is where I stand too.

Kyle Quincey’s time with the Wings in this go-round was marred by the entire Wings’ squad playing like shit.  It’s just easier to call him garbage and write it off.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/29/12 at 04:43 PM ET

Leo_Racicot's avatar

Posted by larry from pitt on 06/29/12 at 03:29 PM ET

My response was intended for Oz based on this ambiguous assessment he shared earlier:
Kronwall is far from Letang’s level.

Posted by Leo_Racicot on 06/29/12 at 04:47 PM ET

Avatar

Malkin doesn’t play defense though? Well that’s new.  I’ll take a PIttsburgh fan’s word for it, I guess.  Besides, If Malkin starts in the offensive zone against other teams’ worst players and Malkin is the forward who shares in most of Letang’s ice time, wouldn’t Letang also start in the offensive zone against other teams’ worst players?  Of course his shot differentials would benefit from that.

Did I say Malkin doesn’t play defense? No I didn’t. I said the other team’s more likely to score when he’s on the ice. Does this make him a liability defensively vs., I don’t know, Matt Cooke? Yes it does. Does it make him a net liability? Absolutely not.

And I’m not sure why you would use this six degrees of Kevin Bacon logic to try and make the case that Letang plays soft minutes in the offensive zone just because Malkin does when you could simply look that up and see that that’s unsupported by data.


Compared to their respective teams. Flat comparison has Kronwalls GA-ON/60 as lower than Letang’s.  Teams score less against Kronwall than they do against Letang.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/29/12 at 03:42 PM ET

That’s the only useful comparison. It adjusts for systemic differences and league competition factors.

Posted by larry from pitt on 06/29/12 at 05:07 PM ET

J.J. from Kansas's avatar

That’s the only useful comparison. It adjusts for systemic differences and league competition factors.

Posted by larry from pitt on 06/29/12 at 04:07 PM ET

This would be true if there were huge differences at play here, but there are not. Kronwall’s and Letang’s roles are not horribly dissimilar and Kronwall gets scored on less often than Letang does. I mean, imagine that Kronwall doesn’t improve his team’s goals-against rate while playing on a team with Nick Lidstrom quite as well as Letang does playing on a team with Paul Martin.

Corsi and shot differential are only useful to compare within a team because of these differences, but saying that it doesn’t count to say a guy ACTUALLY gets scored on less (with a worse PDO, mind you) doesn’t hold up there.

Did I say Malkin doesn’t play defense? No I didn’t.

Then perhaps you misunderstood what I meant by “heavy lifting”.  Ok then. We’re at an agreement.

Does this make him a liability defensively vs., I don’t know, Matt Cooke? Yes it does.

This is not what “liability” means.  It also grossly misrepresents the differential of their roles (which you’ve done here AND in the Kronwall/Letang comparison)

And I’m not sure why you would use this six degrees of Kevin Bacon logic to try and make the case that Letang plays soft minutes in the offensive zone just because Malkin does when you could simply look that up and see that that’s unsupported by data.

You mean the 52% zone starts and the middle-of-the-pack QoC? Yeah, we can’t be sure WHERE somebody might get the idea that one of the single-biggest drivers of shot differential in the league who just so happens to play 1/3rd of every minute another guy does could possibly have an effect on the guy’s shot differential.  Silly me.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/29/12 at 05:23 PM ET

Avatar

You mean the 52% zone starts and the middle-of-the-pack QoC? Yeah, we can’t be sure WHERE somebody might get the idea that one of the single-biggest drivers of shot differential in the league who just so happens to play 1/3rd of every minute another guy does could possibly have an effect on the guy’s shot differential.  Silly me.

And this is why you need to sort in terms of placement vs peers to benefit at all from stats like this.

Check those zone starts again vs peers. He’s got the third least zone starts in the offensive zone, and he’s barely ahead of Michalek. Letang’s a powerplay guy. Those two aren’t. The differential between Letang’s zone starts to Orpik’s gets completely wiped out if you’re just looking at even strength and short-handed situations. Getting the fewest offensive zone starts of any defenseman on your team in 5 on 5, 4 on 5 and 3 on 5 situations isn’t playing in sheltered situations. It’s playing in the toughest ones.

I could continue, but if you can’t acknowledge that raw numbers (as in, not in comparison to guys in like situations) get driven by everything from the conference you play in to the goaltender behind you, there’s not really any point.

Posted by larry from pitt on 06/29/12 at 06:59 PM ET

J.J. from Kansas's avatar

I didn’t say Letang is sheltered.  He plays roughly the same defensive responsibility by raw numbers that Kronwall plays, except Kronwall doesn’t have the league’s best shot-driver playing 32% of his 5-on-5 minutes and his team (by raw numbers) still allows fewer goals against with him on the ice than Letang’s does. Kronwall also plays more on the PK… where defense is played.

Getting the fewest offensive zone starts of any defenseman on your team in 5 on 5, 4 on 5 and 3 on 5 situations isn’t playing in sheltered situations. It’s playing in the toughest ones.

Getting offensive zone starts while shorthanded doesn’t mean a thing.  That is a completely worthless piece to add to the stats when considering that Orpik plays 2 1/2 times as much shorthanded as Letang does.  By virtue of being a better defender, Orpik gets more opportunities for faceoffs in all zones.

When you throw out the garbage about offensive zone starts on the PK, you see that Letang is middle-of-the-pack on his team for that.  He’s not sheltered, but he’s not leaned on.

I would continue, but if you can’t acknowledge that straight comparisons between very comparable players are worthwhile where transitive bullshit fails, then there’s not really any point.

Kris Letang is not sheltered, but he’s helped.  That’s the point.  Kronwall is also not sheltered and he’s helped less.  Kronwall is better defensively than Letang while Letang is quite a bit better offensively.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/29/12 at 07:20 PM ET

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