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If You Are Into ‘Regularized Logistic Regression Model’ Talk

from PRNewswire,

As the Chicago Blackhawks and Boston Bruins prepare to do battle in the first game of the Stanley Cup Finals on Wednesday, new research from two University of Chicago Booth School of Business professors indicates that National Hockey League teams depend more on group performance than individual stars, and that some teams may not be getting the best players for their money.

Chicago Booth colleagues Robert B. Gramacy, an assistant professor of econometrics and statistics, and Matt Taddy, associate professor of econometrics and statistics and Neubauer Family Faculty Fellow, along with Shane T. Jensen of the Wharton School, developed an alternative way to look at and rate NHL players.

NHL teams currently assign a plus-minus value to players, counting the goals scored while players are on the ice and comparing them with goals given up. This, the researchers argue, flatters some players' statistics, while undervaluing others. A player could theoretically score lots of goals but still have a negative plus-minus value if the opposition scored more.

To correct this imbalance, the researchers created what they call a regularized logistic regression model. They applied this new measure to data from four NHL seasons, 2007-11, and found that far fewer players stood out from their teams' average performances.

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Comments

Nathan's avatar

All you need to know is the article says that Pavel Datsyuk is the best player in the NHL.

Posted by Nathan from the scoresheet! on 06/11/13 at 08:23 AM ET

WingsFanInBeanLand's avatar

The Puck Stops Here just jazzed his pants.

Posted by WingsFanInBeanLand from Where the GM likes his team. on 06/11/13 at 10:56 AM ET

Avatar

Wingsfan, that is so funny, I was thinking the same thing. Although, this level of scientific rigor is way beyond anything PSH has ever encountered in his sheltered statistical life.

Posted by scooter on 06/11/13 at 11:13 AM ET

Kate from Pa.-made in Detroit's avatar

The Detroit Red Wings’ Pavel Datsyuk was actually the league’s best player, by the new metric.

Datsyuk is the best player by any metric. I have been a hockey fan for many, many years and I have never observed a player as complete as Pavel Datsyuk.

To me, Datsyuk is the best player in hockey past, and present. Howe and Beliveau are my next two.

Lets Go Red Wings!!!!!

Posted by Kate from Pa.-made in Detroit on 06/11/13 at 12:11 PM ET

OlderThanChelios's avatar

Wingsfan, that is so funny, I was thinking the same thing.

Then that makes three of us.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we find out that The Link Goes To Himself is actually a janitor at the Wharton School and that he’s been using the material he finds in their waste baskets as the basis for his posts. smile

Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids, MI on 06/11/13 at 01:49 PM ET

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Paul Kukla founded Kukla’s Korner in 2005 and the site has since become the must-read site on the ‘net for all the latest happenings around the NHL.

From breaking news to in-depth stories around the league, KK Hockey is updated with fresh stories all day long and will bring you the latest news as quickly as possible.

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