from Travis Yost of TSN,

Assuming the Leafs received the same goaltending talent through an 82-game season, they’d need to control about 58-60 per cent of 5-on-5 play to have a shot at breaking even in the goal department. That’s a harrowing and basically impossible task, considering the number of teams who have accomplished such a feat (a) can be counted on one hand; and (b) were legitimately Stanley Cup contenders, the likes of which include Mike Babcock’s old Detroit Red Wings team, Darryl Sutter’s Los Angeles Kings, and Joel Quenneville’s Chicago Blackhawks.

The good news is that while the jury is still out on Andersen’s talent, our best bet wouldn’t be the 89.5 per cent save percentage the Leafs have posted so far this season. He’s actually been a shade above 92 per cent at 5-on-5 in his career. So, if we assumed that Andersen will favourably regress toward his historical averages and the Leafs will maintain the same shot control, they’d be 16 goals above average – which, more likely than not, will mean a playoff berth.

Long story short: The Leafs look great, except for the goaltending. And that’s a pretty massive problem. Time will tell if Andersen can rebound, but if status quo remains, the Leafs might be in trouble despite assembling a very competitive team.

more