from Scott Cullen of TSN,
Player evaluation in hockey can be a complicated process, and perhaps never more than when it comes to evaluating goaltenders, an aspect of the game that has tended to confound both the eye test and data analysts. Scott Cullen takes a look at goaltenders using expected goals against.
For years, goals against average was a popular method to evaluate goaltenders, as if the number of shots allowed was something under the goaltenders control. So, to move beyond that, save percentage seemed to be a better indicator of goaltending proficiency. That’s an improvement, but there is still plenty of room for more details to be part of the evaluation process.
The focus now seems to be on finding a way to include shot quality as part of the evaluation. As Mike Smithcould show you, or Tuukka Raskcould show you, teams don’t necessarily allow the same quantity or quality of shots against.
One way to try to incorporate shot quality into goaltender measurement would be to include expected goals against and compare it to the actual goals against. Expected goal models are not perfect, and are still being refined, but they do attempt to address differences related to shot quality from one goaltender to another.
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