Kukla's Korner Hockey

Kukla's Korner Hockey

Fancy Stats Say These Players On The Decline

10/02/2014 at 5:08pm EDT

from Stephen Burtch of Sportsnet,

Over the past seven seasons, Jarome Iginla has seen his unblocked shot attempt generation (iFenwick per 60) slide at 5v5, and his production has followed suit. In 2007-08 his iFenwick of 13.993 was 10th in the NHL alongside other stars like Patrik Elias, Jeff Carter and Alexander Semin. Last season, his iFenwick had dipped below 11, ranking him 97th, behind the likes of Jiri Tlusty, David Jones and Chris Higgins. That’s a drop of more than 20 percent in his shot attempts....

Players with declines comparable to Iginla who were once counted upon to produce at the highest levels in the NHL include a few names that might surprise. Kings centre Mike Richards shot-attempt generation peaked in 2009-10 when he was 24 and has been in precipitous decline since. His most recent two-year average is 16.9 percent lower than his peak. Richards will be 29 this season, and the Kings may have a hard time moving his contract if his drop continues.

Other skaters who peaked fairly early and are now in rapid decline include Stephen Weiss who has seen a massive 47 percent decline before turning 31, Jiri Hudler (37.8% by age 31) and R.J. Umberger (21.3% by age 32). Weiss appears to have been an unfortunate UFA mistake on the part of an aging Red Wings squad that was hoping to get a bit younger. Hudler is perhaps being relied upon a bit too heavily for production by an anemic Flames squad after leading them in scoring. Umberger was sent back to Philadelphia by Columbus this off-season, along with a fourth-round pick in exchange for the consistently productive Scott Hartnell. The Flyers faithful may find out that the Blue Jackets have burned them a bit.

more with graphs to prove the point...

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