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Evening Line- Brendan Shanahan

Filed in: NHL Teams, Toronto Maple Leafs, | KK Hockey | Permalink
 

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Paul's avatar

There is much more from Shanahan, so check out the recent Twitter timeline of Masters.

Posted by Paul from Motown Area on 08/12/20 at 06:42 PM ET

Paul's avatar

Kristen Shilton has more remarks from Shanahan and Dubas.

Shanahan on his faith in the Leafs moving ahead

“I have complete faith in Kyle as a general manager, in Sheldon [Keefe] as a coach and complete confidence in what we’re going to do here in Toronto. I think our potential for growth is even greater than it was a couple years ago. I’m absolutely confident that we’re going to be determined to get it done. You just have to go to work. On days like today, you’ve got to face the music and it’s not pleasant. We’ve identified and seen some of the things that are deficient in our group. We’ve been around long enough now where we’ve seen them, and we want to make those improvements. This is a results business, and we’re determined to get those results.”

more

Posted by Paul from Motown Area on 08/12/20 at 07:29 PM ET

d ca's avatar

Answer is easy got to trade one of the big 4.

Since you aren’t going to trade Matthews that leaves 3. Tavares took a hometown discount to sign there and you’d never convince another UFA to sign if you moved him—not to mention his NMC. So that means you have 2 guys that you can move: Marner or Nylander. Marner’s contract means a very limited market where you won’t get equal value for return. Nylander became Toronto’s scapegoat so his value is also depressed.

Dermott, Sandin, and Liljegren are years away from being able to step-up and fill top 4 roles.

It’ll be interesting to see what comes back the other way on any trade. But the Toronto window is starting to close with this core. They have perhaps next year left.

Posted by d ca on 08/12/20 at 10:51 PM ET

TreKronor's avatar

It’ll be interesting to see what comes back the other way on any trade. But the Toronto window is starting to close with this core. They have perhaps next year left.

Most of these kids are under 25….I think they’ll be just fine for quite a few years.

Posted by TreKronor on 08/13/20 at 09:48 AM ET

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I agree TreKronor. 
I think they don’t have to do much, other than allow for some lessons learned, maturity, etc.  They need some tweaks on D, especially if Barrie leaves… but they have great assets to deal with that. I’d be VERY surpries if they deal any of the big 4.  Everyone seems to think they will, but I highly doubt it.  They also don’t need to. 

I mean the jackets are a well coached, hardworking team… the first round is always tough.  Had they won that, I could see them just tearing through people after.  But maybe not. 

Posted by DieByTheWing on 08/13/20 at 10:23 AM ET

d ca's avatar

Most of these kids are under 25….I think they’ll be just fine for quite a few years.

Posted by TreKronor on 08/13/20 at 09:48 AM ET

We are speaking apples and oranges. You are saying age-wise they will be fine. I am saying cap-wise they have 1 year left before the cap forces changes to this core or letting young talent walk in free agency. That is why I talk about having to trade one of the big 4. Kind of follows that they are too big of a hit on the cap..not that they are too old and need a return before their skills fall off a cliff. I am surprised you didn’t pick that up.

Here’s why the big 4 must be broken up…
I expect Dermott to take a 2 year bridge deal. So come that time he’ll be in the last year of that contract. So will Robertson ,Kerfoot, Liljegren, Sandin, Kapanen, Rielly, and the backup goalie Campbell. They will have had to replace/renew Andersen. That’s a huge upcoming expense that must be planned for as the cap will stay in the range of 81.5-82M. They already have 13 players under contract for $68,208,533. That leaves $13,291,467 to sign 8 players that all will be beyond a 1.67M average. And btw that doesn’t even count Andreas Johnsson who they are rumored to be shopping already.

So in summary it’s a Tampa issue not a Pittsburgh/Chicago one.

Posted by d ca on 08/13/20 at 04:48 PM ET

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I still don’t see it, maybe eventually.  But the fact that so much of their supporting cast is also young, allows them flexibiltiy going forward.  The ability to trade guys like Kapanen, Johnson, Dermott etc, to keep the core intact, coupled with good drafting, and guys like Spezza coming in cheap… they are following the model of investing in their core, and supplementing with youth and vets.  That core is so good, they can do this for the foreseeable future.  We shall see.  Clearly the flat cap if it does in fact go multiple years will be a problem.  This isn’t where they’ve given big contracts to supplementary players like some of those other teams have done… if they manage to keep avoiding that and cycling through supplemntary players, I think they will be fine, but maybe not.  The good news is they are in a good place, if they don’t have to move those guys right now, they are still amazing assets 2-3 years from now if they have to move them then.

Posted by DieByTheWing on 08/13/20 at 05:03 PM ET

d ca's avatar

I still don’t see it…. their supporting cast is also young…allows them flexibiltiy….The ability to trade guys….to keep the core intact, coupled with good drafting, and guys…coming in cheap

I’ll walk you through it. The Leafs drafted high for a number of years. High picks turn out at a higher success rate. That advantage started to go away in 2017 (the year after they won the Matthews sweepstakes). After that they drafted 17th, then 29th—after trading away 25, and won’t draft in the 1st round again until 2021 after trading the picks for Jake Muzzin & Patrick Marleau’s cap dump respectively). Good drafting becomes that much harder when you are at the bottom of the 1st round and trading away your 1st round picks. It’s also much harder to find those diamonds in the rough as everyone scouts Europe now in depth.

Now onto the big 4. Matthews makes $11.634M, Tavares 11.0M, Marner 10.893M, Nylander $6,962,366 that mean the big 4 consume $40,489,366. On an 81.5M cap that equates to 49.68%. They are all signed through July 2024 at least.

Their top d-man is Morgan Rielly (2012 R1#5) has 2 years left @$5M then hits UFA (which means more then to keep him). Jake Muzzin got a raise next year to 5.625M (and has another 3 years after that). Both guys play LD so their #1 & #3 d-men will combine for 10.625M or 13.04% of the cap. So were up to 62.72%.

Rasmus Sandin & Travis Dermott both also play LD so they can’t fill the RD spots on the top 2 pairs. Timothy Liljegren is a RD, but he’s not going to be ready for that role for at least 2 years (he filled in on the 3rd pair this year and was -5 in 11 games) and he has a performance bonus possibilty. So my point is they are going to have to bring in free agents to replace Barrie & Cody Ceci—say for argument sake they bring in guys that combine to make what they replaced (4.5 + 2.75M) that means another 7.25M brings the total up to 71.61%. BTW, that’s 8 players on a 23 man roster.

Lets add 2 more players (so we have the top 2 lines and top 2 pairs). Kerfoot (.(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)), and Andreas Johnsson coming off a knee injury (likely a PCL by lenght of time off) has .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). That’s another 6.9M or 8.47% bringing the total to 80.07%.

Now add in the goalie and the backup.Frederik Andersen (last year @5M) and Jack Campbell (2 yrs@ 1.65M). 6.65M or 8.16% total is up to 88.23%. That’s 12 players and 11 to go and 9.585634M to spend.

Kasperi Kapanen 2 years @3.2M, Zach Hyman has 1 year left at 2.25M. And Phil Kessel buyout for 1.2M are the last forwards/former forwards above the million dollar threshold. Combined they make 6.65 another 8.16 and brings the total to 96.39%. With 9 left to go.

They now have 2.935634M left in cap space and 9 players to sign for a full roster.

Justin Holl is a d-man and got a raise to 2M. That means $935,634 is left with 8 players for a full roster.

Going to need 2 more d-man to get 7 on the roster. Toronto can resort to bringing up the ELC d-men to fill in the last 2 spots. Rasmus Sandin makes $894,167 and that is where they would essentially run out of cap space with 41,467 left.

The 7th d-man could be Martin Marincin making 700k. They now are above the cap by $658,533. They need 6 to make a full 23 man roster.

There is only 1 way to accomplish that: LTIR contracts. But remember Toronto already gave up it’s last two 1st round picks. You expect their 2021 1st rounder to be in the high 20’s so teams might ask for a prospect instead.

Without LTIR, someone making enough salary to add at least 4 minimum salary contracts has to go this year.

Either way…Toronto will already start to lose those young depth guys that play either 2nd/3rd line.

Oh and my point of those players (Dermott, Robertson ,Kerfoot, Liljegren, Sandin, Kapanen, Rielly, and the backup goalie Campbell) they will add more pressure either the trade deadline before (when you want to get something instead of losing an asset for nothing in the off-season) or that off-season when you have to let them walk for nothing. And that’s too many pieces to be trading away. LTIR won’t continue to help you forever as giving away 1st rounders sacrifices future talent. Something has to give.

It’s my argument that something should be either Marner or Nylander. Others will keep the core and trade away the depth in order to get more minimum salary guys into the lineup….but how is that a solution to not making past the 1st round since 2004.

Posted by d ca on 08/14/20 at 12:41 AM ET

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Because the core is stacked, young and for the most part horses.  You can ride them. 
Excellent analysis.  They already have some LITR contracts I believe…  have to check.  However, by trading guys like Kapanen and Johnson, do they not free up enough space?  I don’t know, I’ll have to look at this later, but I would be very surprised if they traded any of the top guys.

Posted by DieByTheWing on 08/15/20 at 11:17 AM ET

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