from Mike Chambers of All Things Avs,

O’Reilly signed a two-year, $10 million deal with the Flames, including a $2.5 million bonus that will kick in next week if the Avs don’t match the deal and keep the 22-year-old. O’Reilly will make approximately $2.9 million this season, in less than 29 games (18 of 48 games are in the books), and $6.5 million next season.

Will the Avs match? My early response is no. They could have had Factor for much less, and paying him a $2.5 million signing bonus for holding out will be too much pride to swallow for this executive staff. If they don’t match, they will be compensated with first- and third-round draft picks. And I suspect they will turn this PR nightmare into another “we’re building through the draft” move, and basically ignore that Factor is in his early prime and draft picks don’t typically produce for 2-4 years. Also, if the Avs do match, what do you think the guys in the room are going to think about the $10 million man, after sloshing through the first 18 games in great need of their young star? And next year, Matt Duchene is making $3.5M and Factor is at $6.5M, after which both are RFA’s again. Then what? Don’t think it will happen.

A handful of others who I respect in this business think otherwise. They think the Avs will match and swallow their pride in a situation that turned into an organizational disaster.

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