Kukla's Korner Hockey
by Paul on 05/14/13 at 02:57 PM ET
from Scott Cullen of TSN,
In the first round, the team with the higher expected goals, using these calculations, won seven of the eight series, with the Los Angeles Kings' win over the St. Louis Blues upsetting the bid for perfection.
Since I'm the first one to emphasize that overall statistics (or standings) are not necessarily representative of the current value for a team, especially with respect to injuries, these statistics merely provide a baseline for the series, perhaps providing an idea what a team needs to do in order to emerge victorious.
In some cases, teams will simply need to keep doing what they've been doing throughout the regular season; in others, they might need better goaltending, or fewer shots against, or more shots for -- just something -- to provide better expected results in a seven-game series.
The calculations below are simple and the expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each team's shots for and against over the course of the season and splitting the difference.
more including stats which help explain the above...
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