Kukla's Korner

Kukla's Korner Hockey

2011-2012 Islanders Fantasy Stat Projections

image


Below are TII’s Islanders fantasy stat projections for the upcoming season.  The lines are obviously speculation at this point and are assumed.  Other assumptions that these projections are based on: 1) Evgeni Nabokov is going to be with the team for the majority of the season and starts the season as the #1 goaltender, 2) Nino Niederreiter is going to start the season with the Isles, and 3) Calvin de Haan will either start the season in the NHL or be called up early in the season.  The defensemen listed below are in no particular order.  Do you guys agree with the stat projections?  Do you agree with the lines I have below?

Forwards

First line: Matt Moulson (32G, 26A-58P)-John Tavares (35G, 40A-75P)-PA Parenteau (20G, 25A-45P)
Second line: Michael Grabner (41G, 25A-66P)-Frans Nielsen (15G, 33A-48P)-Kyle Okposo (22G, 25A-47P)
Third line: Blake Comeau (25G, 27A-52P)-Josh Bailey (15G, 20A-35P)-Nino Niederreiter (25G, 20A-45P)
Fourth line: Matt Martin (8G, 15A-23P)-Marty Reasoner (15G, 15A-30P)-Brian Rolston (15G, 22A-37P)

Defensemen

Mark Streit (15G, 45A-60P)
Andrew MacDonald (10G, 25A-35P)
Travis Hamonic (7G, 27A-34P)
Ty Wishart (5G, 20A-25P)
Mark Eaton (3G, 10A-13P)
Milan Jurcina (8G, 27A-35P)
Calvin de Haan (5G, 15A-20P)

Goaltenders

Evgeni Nabokov-25 wins
Rick DiPietro-15 wins
Al Montoya-5 wins

Feel free to comment with opinions, disagreements, other line projections, etc.


William Morrison
@TheIsleInformer
The Islanders Informer

Filed in: NHL Teams, New York Islanders, William Morrison, | KK Hockey | Permalink
 

Comments

Avatar

I’d be very happy with a solid 30 goal season from Grabner. I’m not sure he will top 40.

Posted by Tiger Al on 08/23/11 at 05:55 PM ET

Avatar

Niederreiter’s look a bit high for a rookie and Rolston isn’t getting 15 unless he goes on the #1 pp unit (which might very well be the plan), but the rest of these all look very reasonable to me (excluding injuries, which are impossible to predict). 41 for Grabner is particularly gettable, imo, as there’s no real game plan to counter ‘step and a half faster than everyone else’.

Posted by steviesteve on 08/23/11 at 05:57 PM ET

Avatar

Add the numbers up.  You’re predicting 315 or so goals from the team.  Vancouver had 262 goals last year.  Not happening.

Posted by davezliny on 08/23/11 at 06:05 PM ET

Avatar

lol..optimistic much?

Posted by randykinders from atl on 08/23/11 at 06:10 PM ET

Avatar

I counted 321.  I don’t disagree with you that as a team the Isles aren’t going to score that many goals, but I think that all of the individual predictions are very reasonable.  At this point, it is impossible to predict who will get injured, who won’t have a season that lives up to potential, etc.

Posted by William Morrison on 08/23/11 at 06:10 PM ET

Avatar

I think those stats are overblown for a lot of players.

Do you really think these 19 players will score 321 goals?

92 more than the 30 players that played for them last year?

59 more than the Canucks last season?

3 more than the Capitals in ‘09-‘10?

Posted by NathanBC on 08/23/11 at 06:11 PM ET

Avatar

See this response to the last comment:  I counted 321.  I don’t disagree with you that as a team the Isles aren’t going to score that many goals, but I think that all of the individual predictions are very reasonable.  At this point, it is impossible to predict who will get injured, who won’t have a season that lives up to potential, etc.

Tell me this: Which of the individual stats do you think are overblown?

Posted by William Morrison on 08/23/11 at 06:16 PM ET

Avatar

This team has the forward talent and potential to score a lot of goals.

Posted by William Morrison on 08/23/11 at 06:19 PM ET

Avatar

Is this guy serious? 60 more goals than last years highest scoring team? 45 Wins? Dream on bud….

Posted by GG< from Toronto on 08/23/11 at 06:26 PM ET

Lindas1st's avatar

Here’s THN’s projections for the Isles.

player gp, g-a-pta
————————————-
1) Tavares 80, 35-47-82
2) Okposo 80, 23-34-57
3) Streit 78, 14-42-56
4) Grabner 80, 35-20-55
5) Moulson 82, 30-25-55
6) Nielsen, 75, 15-30-45
7) Comeau 75, 20-20-40
8) Bailey 81, 16-23-39
9) Hamonic 78, 7-30-37
10) Parenteau 80, 15-21-36
11) Niederreiter 75, 18-14-32
12) Hunter 70, 11-15-26
13) Reasoner 80, 10-15-25
14) Martin 75, 7-15-22

Just Points Given
————————————
MacDonald - 22
Joensuu - 18
Wishart - 17

Posted by Lindas1st from New England on 08/23/11 at 06:28 PM ET

Avatar

What kind of rubbish is this? In the last 4 NHL seasons only 1 NHL team has scored over 300+ goals and that was the 2010 Washington Capitals with 318. And Rick DiPietro will have 15 wins? He’ll be lucky to stay healthy for 15 games with his injuries/physical capabilities.
My god, where do some of these online writers get their credentials from. It’s such an embarrassment reading this stuff. Really.

Posted by stevedepot from NY on 08/23/11 at 06:30 PM ET

Avatar

I think that total is completely insane. I am a diehard, and to rationalize the Islanders scoring exactly 60 more goals than the Presidents trophy winning Canucks is ludicrous.

Posted by Will from DE on 08/23/11 at 06:30 PM ET

Avatar

Guys, these are projections if the whole team is healthy for the whole 82 game season.  It is impossible to predict injuries, players not living up to expectations, etc.

Posted by William Morrison on 08/23/11 at 06:32 PM ET

Avatar

Tell me this: Which of the individual stats do you think are overblown?

321 goals is ridiculous.  You are assuming each player plays to their full potential and are listing the best case scenario for each.  None of them stick out as impossible but it’s not realistic to expect that many goals.

I’d start by taking off 11 from Grabner and 9 from Niederreiter.  That gets you down to 301.  You’ll need at least another 60 goals shaved off to be realistic.  That’s like 3.5 goals per player still too high.

Posted by Aron on 08/23/11 at 06:34 PM ET

Paul's avatar

The key word from William is “projection” but I do understand where some of you can see a problem with it, even if it is a projection.

But that is why he is a blogger and as you can see, willing to debate.

Continue on…

Posted by Paul from Motown Area on 08/23/11 at 06:35 PM ET

Avatar

To answer your question, yes I do like the lines.  Very good balance if they all stay healthy.  How many goals do you have Gillies down for?  What happened to Mottau?

Posted by Aron on 08/23/11 at 06:40 PM ET

Avatar

These projections are not to far at all from THN’s projections which are posted above.  These are not team projections.  These are INDIVIDUAL projections based upon potential, expectations, etc.

Posted by William Morrison on 08/23/11 at 06:42 PM ET

Avatar

Evgeni Nabokov-25 wins
Rick DiPietro-15 wins
Al Montoya-5 wins

That’s 45 wins!  I think what you are failing to take into consideration is that none of the teams in the Atlantic have gotten any worse.  It’s in my opinion the strongest division in hockey (on paper)  NYI would have to jump both NJ and NYR to get near 45 wins…

Posted by Aron on 08/23/11 at 06:46 PM ET

Avatar

THN numbers are optimistic but reasonable.  If the Isles score in 250s, not sure how they finish 12th, which is what THN predicts.

Posted by davezliny on 08/23/11 at 06:46 PM ET

Avatar

These projections are not to far at all from THN’s projections which are posted above.  These are not team projections.  These are INDIVIDUAL projections based upon potential, expectations, etc.

There’s a 65 goal difference.  That’s very very far off.

Posted by Aron on 08/23/11 at 06:47 PM ET

Avatar

If you go player by player they are comparable to THN.  My Grabner projection is not unreasonable coming off of a 34 goal, 18 assist rookie season and an offseason to get stronger.  Add this to him being one of the fastest skaters in the NHL and I think 40 goals is on the horizon. 

As far as Nino goes, he is physically ready to play in the NHL and can absolutely put together a 25 goal rookie season. 

As far as 45 wins, I predicted the Isles to make the playoffs and that is what it’s going to take to get them there.

Posted by William Morrison on 08/23/11 at 06:58 PM ET

Avatar

My Grabner projection is not unreasonable coming off of a 34 goal, 18 assist rookie season and an offseason to get stronger.  Add this to him being one of the fastest skaters in the NHL and I think 40 goals is on the horizon.

In the same vein, I think it’s also reasonable to say it was a fluke and he will regress the way Mason Raymond did.  Those two players are incredibly similar and I could very easily see the NHL figuring out what Grabner does…and then stopping it.

Posted by Aron on 08/23/11 at 07:03 PM ET

Avatar

After a second look, the entire fourth line is outlandish. Reasoner isn’t getting double digit goals in fourth line minutes (think he was on Florida’s second line last year), It would make more sense to pencil him in for 5, if he’s going on the fourth line. Last time he was in that role for a year he didn’t even score that many.

I’m also not sure Martin can approach 8 without a similar injury situation as last year. To put this in perspective, that’s more than Max Lapierre got in minutes like that last year. Lapierre has no balls and not a ton of talent, but he could do figure 8s around Martin.

And some of the Ds numbers look like they would depend on first unit Powerplay time they can’t all get, let alone those minutes might be given to Rolston instead of any of them.

Still, people made too big a deal about these projections, which don’t include injuries. Nothing in the first three lines is outrageous assuming no injuries (there will be injuries). The Islanders really do have that many 20 goal capable forwards, if they can figure out a way to get opportunities for all of them.

Posted by steviesteve on 08/23/11 at 07:12 PM ET

Avatar

Islanders defenders had 21 goals this past year, you have them projected for 53.  As steviesteve said, there’s not enough PP time to spread around that kind of production.

Thanks for the discussion topic.  I would love to see your projections for all teams in the Atlantic for some perspective

Posted by Aron on 08/23/11 at 07:23 PM ET

Avatar

These are not team projections.  I am not predicting that the Islanders will score 321 goals this season. 

Streit was hurt all season and if healthy add in 15 to that 21.  Also, MacDonald had a really good season last year and is only going to get better and Hamonic is a really good up and coming defenseman.

Posted by William Morrison on 08/23/11 at 07:35 PM ET

Avatar

You have 7 guys going for 20+ goals and 11 with 15 or more. Holy smokes. Are we returning to the 1980s?  I like the Isles as a darkhorse this year, but c’mon.

Posted by Eric H. on 08/23/11 at 07:36 PM ET

Avatar

Eric-See above responses about inability to predict injury, guys not living up to potential/expectations, etc.

Posted by William Morrison on 08/23/11 at 07:41 PM ET

Avatar

Streit was hurt all season and if healthy add in 15 to that 21.  Also, MacDonald had a really good season last year and is only going to get better and Hamonic is a really good up and coming defenseman.

Posted by William Morrison on 08/23/11 at 05:35 PM ET

You’re missing the point. Streit’s totals aren’t the problem and you can’t just add his goal total to that 21 because any of the ones scored from the right point on the first powerplay while he was out disappear because that position is not available.

Defensemen who can have 10 goal, 30-40 point seasons WITHOUT first unit powerplay time are really, really rare. The only one I can think of from last season is Matt Carle. MacDonald is not that kind of defenseman, since almost half of his production came on a powerplay unit that will be occupied by Streit and, based on your projections, Rolston. Juice, who I watched a lot when I lived in Washington, is damn well certainly not that kind of defenseman and never was on any level. Jurcina is a big body with decent mobility, a hard shot and the hockey IQ of a drunk. And Hamonic, who should develop into a fine, two-way pita over the next couple years, was never a big production even strength player on any level.

Whatever good thoughts you might think of them, guys like this can’t have 35 point seasons without top powerplay minutes that are not available under your configuration.

Posted by steviesteve on 08/23/11 at 08:15 PM ET

Avatar

Maybe this was his EA Sports NHL12 predictions. Good luck gaming!

Posted by Will from DE on 08/23/11 at 08:56 PM ET

Avatar

I think if this article were titled “Islanders’ Maximum Potential” there wouldn’t be such an outcry. The problem most people have is that you’re saying you’re projecting their stats should they stay healthy.

I think these are moreso max-out numbers in a vacuum - every player having a career year and playing to their maximum potential.

Posted by NathanBC on 08/23/11 at 09:01 PM ET

Lindas1st's avatar

Are we returning to the 1980s?

I would love nothing more.
——————————————————————————————

You gotta love William Morrison’s optimism.
Don’t let the commentors effect you and your predictions William Morrison.

Posted by Lindas1st from New England on 08/23/11 at 09:18 PM ET

Lindas1st's avatar

I think these are moreso max-out numbers in a vacuum - every player having a career year and playing to their maximum potential.

yeah, that ain’t gonna happen.

Posted by Lindas1st from New England on 08/23/11 at 09:20 PM ET

Avatar

None of the projections above would be a career year for any of the players listed except for maybe Nino (as a rookie).  For the most part, the projections are very similar to each players stats from last season projected out for a whole season.

MacDonald had 4G and 23A last season in only 60 games played.  I don’t think that 10G and 25A is to far out of the question assuming he plays between 76 and 82 games.

Posted by William Morrison on 08/23/11 at 09:29 PM ET

Avatar

I think all of the projections are reasonable high-end projections, except for the whole 4th line and Nino, and Streit, who are all too high.  Parenteau probably gets less power play time and doesn’t meet that projection.  Chances are one or two top-9 forwards are traded/injured and Jack Haley plays most of the season on the 4th line, Rolston goes to the 3rd line.

Nabakov is not getting 25 wins and Montoya only 5 unless Montoya is injured or sent to the minors.  Nabakov gets 10-15 wins if he sticks the whole season.

Posted by islebback on 08/23/11 at 11:24 PM ET

Avatar

Islebback: Do you think Rolston will replace Nino on the 3rd line and they will put Nino on the 4th line?  If Bailey is traded, do you think they will move Reasoner up to the 3rd line and have Michael Haley center the 4th line?

Posted by William Morrison on 08/23/11 at 11:58 PM ET

Avatar

I think the Grabner-Neilsen-Okposo line is set and Nino spends time on the third line and on the first line. Parenteau loses 1st line time.  I would take Haley over Matt Martin-Haley is a tough guy who can play, Martin probably belongs at Bridgeport at this stage of his career.  I think Haley and Reasoner both make the team, whether or not Bailey stays.  The Islander have a surplus of centers, and some may spend time on the wing.

Posted by islebback on 08/24/11 at 12:22 AM ET

Avatar

I can’t edit my previous post, but one thought that apparently missed the cut is that Nino can be effective on the 4th line as well, and he’ll get his playing time there if he doesn’t show a scoring touch on the 1st or 3rd lines.  I think Parenteau, Nino, and Rolston will be used interchangeably.

Posted by islebback on 08/24/11 at 12:42 AM ET

Add a Comment

Please limit embedded image or media size to 575 pixels wide.

Add your own avatar by joining Kukla's Korner, or logging in and uploading one in your member control panel.

Captchas bug you? Join KK or log in and you won't have to bother.

Smileys

Notify me of follow-up comments?

Feed

Most Recent Blog Posts

About Kukla's Korner Hockey

Paul Kukla founded Kukla’s Korner in 2005 and the site has since become the must-read site on the ‘net for all the latest happenings around the NHL.

From breaking news to in-depth stories around the league, KK Hockey is updated with fresh stories all day long and will bring you the latest news as quickly as possible.

Email Paul anytime at pk@kuklaskorner.com

 

image

image