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Abel to Yzerman

Jamie Drysdale An Option For The Wings At #4

from Ansar Khan of Mlive,

The Los Angeles Kings will then select either center Quinton Byfield or winger Tim Stuetzle at No. 2. The Ottawa Senators at No. 3 will take who is available between Byfield and Stuetzle.

The Detroit Red Wings select at No. 4. This is where the guessing begins, but defenseman Jamie Drysdale makes the most sense.

Scripts have a way of changing. We saw that in 2019 when Steve Yzerman, in his first draft as Red Wings general manager, pulled a surprise by taking defenseman Moritz Seider of Germany at No. 6, ahead of centers Dylan Cozens and Trevor Zegras, one of whom many anticipated Detroit would choose....

Drysdale (5-11, 175) is described by analysts as having a good combination of puck-movement skills and defensive acumen. He skates well and is aggressive for his size.

“His smarts with the puck and excellent footwork and stick placement help him against bigger players,” Red Line Report said. “Tough to gain the offensive zone on his side of the ice -- keeps his shoulders squared up to puck-carriers and closes gaps perfectly. Extremely dangerous when he has the puck. Calculated passer spreads wealth out to all areas in offensive zone. Utilizes pinpoint accurate snap shots from far out, aiming for areas where teammates can get deflections. Superb skater links together world class moves in all four directions.”

Red Line Report said Drysdale’s style compares to Cale Makar, the 2017 fourth overall pick who has had a strong rookie season with the Colorado Avalanche.

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Comments

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I do wonder how they view these kids… I think Drysdal or Perfetti seem the most logical choices (assuming no surprises in the top 3 - which isn’t out of the question really)

I love that Perfetti’s IQ is off the charts… however, he did get cut from Team Canada for whatever reason….

There are some other choies as well.  This is one of those make or break ones.  When you start getting 3-10… you really have to make the right choice.  You might get a steal like Petterson or Makar… or you might just get another above average player (which isn’t a bad thing) but we need to hit a homerun… this team desperately needs some star power.

Posted by DieByTheWing on 06/29/20 at 08:55 AM ET

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I just hope that Ottawa, who already has 3-4 very good forward prospects ready to play, decides to take Drysdale at 3 allowing Stutzle to fall to us. They’d still get a really good forward at 5. Then again I have no idea how they, or any other team, value any of these players. Some people think Rossi is the 2nd best player available. I love Stutzle. There’s almost no chance that he or Byfield will be around though. I like Drysdale and Perfetti but I don’t know if either are #4 pick caliber players. I’m just trying to shine a turd here. With 3 second round picks Detroit should get a really nice haul. I can’t wait to see how Yzerman works things and for some of our young guys to hit the ice when play resumes in fall 2021.

Posted by godblender on 06/29/20 at 10:18 AM ET

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I wouldn’t be heartbroken if they ended up with Drysdale. Can’t have too many young stud defensemen.

Posted by RyanVM on 06/29/20 at 11:02 AM ET

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I just hope that Ottawa, who already has 3-4 very good forward prospects ready to play, decides to take Drysdale at 3 allowing Stutzle to fall to us.

I wonder if the Kings are more likely to pick a D than Ottawa. The Athletic did a ranking of prospect pools and while LA had the best, their top six or seven prospects are forwards, so they could definitely use a high-end D prospect (I hope).

Either way, there are plenty of good options at #4, both F and D.

If Stutzle or Byfield don’t fall to #4 I like Raymond, Perfetti or Holtz. I think any of them would be great additions at F and Drysdale would be a great alternative if they really want D.

Posted by BaromirBragr on 06/29/20 at 11:18 AM ET

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Not sure if you guys watch many Colorado games, but man, if Drysdale is even close to Makar… he’d be hard to pass up, that guy is a joy/treat/amazing to watch.

That being said, we really, really need more C prospects that can turn into a top C.  So… who knows.
I could see LA taking Drysdale, but Byfield is too good to pass up I think, at least projection wise.  I wasn’t super impressed with him at the world juniors mind you, but he was younger than the other guys there, impressive enough in its own on Canada. 

But if he projects to a Malkin type player… that’s hard to pass, even if you have deep forward prospects.

Posted by DieByTheWing on 06/29/20 at 01:59 PM ET

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Im seeing Drysdale as giving inconsistent effort.  I believe his stock is so high because hes a relative two way defensive geared towards offense and is right handed.

What Im seeing of Rossi I like.  Itd be nice to get a prospect that excels at the transition game.  Players that win puck battles and make clean passes.  Rossis pass stats were pretty incredible.  Especially his conversion rate on high danger passes.

Also looking at Paterka with our 2nd rounders if hes still there.  Loving what his game is compared to what we need on the team.

Posted by ThatGuy on 06/29/20 at 03:39 PM ET

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Also fwiw, i guess the first 3 D we toom last year were all aome of the best out of that draft.  We do need D but weve got a good pipeline but I dont know we need it with the first pick compared to whats out there.

Posted by ThatGuy on 06/29/20 at 03:40 PM ET

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Don’t disagree ThatGuy.  Some of those F prospects, particularly at C, are intriguing in that they could turn out amazing, or just average… I’m onboard with Rossi too, really like him, though for whatever reason, lots of people are hyping Perfetti over him…

Posted by DieByTheWing on 06/29/20 at 04:09 PM ET

RWBill's avatar

Im seeing Drysdale as giving inconsistent effort.

Posted by ThatGuy on 06/29/20 at 03:39 PM ET

How many games have you seen him play?

Posted by RWBill on 06/29/20 at 06:15 PM ET

bigfrog's avatar

I wouldn’t be heartbroken if they ended up with Drysdale. Can’t have too many young stud defensemen.

Seems like a logical selection, if available at 4. grin

Posted by bigfrog on 06/29/20 at 07:09 PM ET

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none RWB.  Thats from watching the most recent scouting reports on him.  Hes was considered the best available D at the start of the year hands down and now hes fallen on several rankings.  While majority of NHL scouts polled still had him the best D it isnt unantmous and a lot of scouts questioned his effort on a consistent basis.  I believe its in the little black book scouting report.  Ive seen Jake Sanderson of the USNDP ranked above him several spots on some lists.

Posted by ThatGuy on 06/29/20 at 08:21 PM ET

d ca's avatar

Since 2016, here is the net gains in the NHL draft position by teams:
broken link So, there is the visual proof of what most are complaining about. Hopefully, the law of averages smooths out next year when the Wings again have the top odds for the #1 pick—cause that is my real prediction. And that’s before I factor in Blash coming back.

As far as Drysdale for #4—- possible (but services have him lower and I think Wings are going forward or looking at trading the pick—I don’t believe they are going after another 1st pairing RHD—the Wings have 2 RHD in Hronek & Seider. That’s not to say I wouldn’t like picking Drysdale—just don’t think he fits an organizational need as much as a forward does.):

Future Considerations has him #7.
Future Considerations 2020 draft rankings

Draft Analyst has him #8.
Draft Analyst 2020 Final Rankings

Hockey Prospect has him #12 behind USNDTP Jake Sanderson (# 5).
Hockeyprospect.com 2020 Draft Rankings.

The difference is Sanderson is better defensively with an underrated offensive game while the reverse is true about Drysdale. Drysdale has advantages in play-making/ice vision, pinching instincts, and shot tendency vs Sanderson’s superiority on defense and in physical play. That last part is why some consider Sanderson the top guy as this is a style more in line with the NHL. Recent undersized defenseman have done well enough to make this less of an issue.

And remember Bob McKenzie talks to a large group of head scouts and he has Drysdale going 4th so who knows—-besides the draft is about 4 months away—-that’s a long time especially if European teams open their fall season on time.

But in answer to someone above:
Drysdale isn’t close to Makar. By this time his draft year at least 2 NHL head scouts were saying Makar was going to be the best player in the draft (covered farther down).

Makar was a very late riser. In Jan of his draft year he was in the 2nd and 3rd pairing on Team Canada at the WJC. It was how he played at this tourney that had him skyrocket up the draft boards (4G,4A in 8 games). He then was awarded the most valuable player and most outstanding defenseman in the AJHL (Alberta Junior Hockey League). That league is considered sub-standard competition so scouts were really leaning on that tourney.

In fact, one site did a consensus mid-season rankings using: Future Considerations’, HockeyProspect.com’s, ISS Hockey’s, McKeen’s, TSN Craig’s List’s, TSN Mid-Season(McKenzie’s), Sportsnet’s, The Hockey News’,, ESPN’s, and Draftbuzz’s rankings. Makar shot up the draft boards as shown in the consensus. Here it is followed by some commentary to look back on:
broken link

9. Cale Makar
Makar burst on to the draft scene in the latter half of the season. Routinely makes minced meat of AJHL competition, skating through opponents almost at will, and is very gifted creatively. There’s no doubt that he won’t get away with all the risks he takes now at the next level though, so he’ll have to pick his spots better when he gets into the college ranks. That said, his utter offensive dominance from the backend would make any team salivate.

10. Michael Rasmussen
He’s a 6-foot-5 centre and he scores a lot of goals – a prime candidate for scouts and teams to overrate. It’s not that power play scoring is bad; it’s that his 5-on-5 scoring isn’t at the rate of a WHL first liner – in fact, it’s not even at the WHL average. Shoulder surgery has ended his season early, but he still had 50 games to work with, and didn’t make it to 20 points at 5-on-5. With his size, mobility and positional awareness, he should still be a serviceable NHLer, but I’d wait until the late teens to think about grabbing him.

11. Elias Pettersson
Pettersson and his usual linemate, Canucks prospect Jonathan Dahlen, are making the Allsvenskan, Sweden’s tier pro league, look like a junior league, putting up massive numbers as teenagers. He has some work to do on his skating and he certainly needs to fill out his frame, but he’s improving nearly every game and has been a riser in the rankings this season – four services now have him in the top ten. He’s play both centre and the wing in the Allsvenskan, but projects as a top six winger in the NHL.

12. Cody Glass
One of the most improved players during his draft year, Glass thinks the game extremely well and knows the areas in which he needs to improve – and then he improves in them. His puckhandling skills are bordering on elite, and his playmaking game is very strong. His skating a physicality are good enough to allow him to be dominant at the WHL level, but they are areas that he’ll need to make further strides in before moving to professional hockey. Given his trajectory, he could be a future first line centre.
Miro Heiskanen

13. Heiskanen has had an impressive season. Despite being a July birthday, making him one of the younger members of the draft class, Heiskanen scored 10 points and average 18:39 of ice time on a playoff team in Liiga, the top Finnish league. A little undersized, his high level hockey IQ and mobility are allowing him to dictate the pace of play without needing to be an ominous physical presence.

Compare that to where these services had Drysdale mid-season:

  NHL Central Scouting: 3rd (Mid-Term Rankings, NA Skaters)
  Future Considerations: 7th (Spring)
  HockeyProspect.com: 7th (January)
  Josh Bell’s Rankings: 7th (February)
  Andrew Forbes’ Top-217 Rankings: 5th (March)
  Larry Fisher’s Top-300 Rankings: 5th (March)
  McKeen’s Hockey: 6th
  ISS: 3rd (March)
  Bob McKenzie: 4th (Mid-Season)

As you can see Drysdale has consistently been rated a top 10 pick going as high as 3rd overall.

But the differences appear in the final rankings. This is what a couple anonymous scouts (done so that the full opinions could be used) each said about Makar:

“Generational talents don’t often come along but I think there may be a generational talent in Makar. There’s something that Makar does that if he continues to do at every level he plays, it’s where the game is heading. He’ll be the guy that pushes the pace and makes teams game plan for him or what he can do. You look how a very good skating defenseman can impact [things] from the back end; we’ve seen that through the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I think teams are going to have a tough time passing up on Cale Makar. They’ll try to figure out how to get him. He might go a little higher than we expect.”

Scout #2

“His upside is huge and I believe he could turn out to be the best player in the draft five years down the line. His skating ability is on a different level, as far as change of speed and direction.”

source:here

As far as Drysdale the best review I saw was:

Drysdale’s potential at the next level is sky high. He can be both a shutdown defender on your top pair and your power-play quarterback for the next decade. Players like this only become available at the draft.

But, several sites listed his impact at the next level as being less than that and I really couldn’t find anyone to say he will be contending for top player in the draft.

Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle, Raymond, Drysdale, Rossi, Perfetti, Sanderson, Holtz, is the ranking I would give out. But this is based on very limited game tapes and experts reviews.

Lets all just hope that Stevie has a plan that includes using those top and bottom of the 2nd round and top of the 3rd round to move up and acquire a player or higher draft pick as the Wings won’t be getting any reinforcements out of this draft for at least 2 years.

Posted by d ca on 06/30/20 at 01:54 AM ET

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Last in the league in both scoring and PPG the last 4 years.

We badly need legit forwards.

Posted by Shanahanman on 06/30/20 at 03:56 AM ET

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GPG*

Posted by Shanahanman on 06/30/20 at 03:57 AM ET

Shanny_Fan's avatar

Nice summary d ca.

I don’t believe they are going after another 1st pairing RHD—the Wings have 2 RHD in Hronek & Seider.

Not that you can really have too many good RHD’s but I tend to agree with you here. With this years draft being light with defense in the top 10 and next years draft potentially having 4 or 5 go in the top 10, it might be an opportune time to trade the 4th overall pick and drop down a few spots for a forward or for Sanderson. I wonder if Ottawa would consider trading their 5th and 25ish (NYI pick) for the opportunity to draft Drysdale at #4.

Posted by Shanny_Fan on 06/30/20 at 04:57 PM ET

d ca's avatar

I wonder if Ottawa would consider trading their 5th and 25ish (NYI pick) for the opportunity to draft Drysdale at #4.
Posted by Shanny_Fan on 06/30/20 at 04:57 PM ET

So a guy named Michael Schuckers tried to quantify the value of what an NHL Draft pick is worth and develop a chart of it. His original is from 2011 and the last publicly available is from 2016—that I know of. Here it is as a pdf.
The 4th pick is worth 729. The 5th is 658 + (lets say they pick 30th) 156. Detroit’s value is 729. Ottawa’s value is 814. Detroit should accept that trade.

But, Ottawa would probably want to even this out more so they would probably not offer that additional 1st rounder and swap in Dallas 2nd round pick instead. Making it 5th (658) + lets call it 52 (125) = 783.

That means Ottawa is still giving up a premium a round later than you proposed. So I’d say the chances were slim of getting that 2nd pick in the 1st round unless additional capital came from the Wings.

A website tried to improve upon Schuckers work using a stat besides pts per game for a defenseman. They then combined to standardize the value relative to the first pick being worth a base score. Here is their work:
broken link
broken link
Using this chart. Moving from 5th to 4th, the Sens should give up a beginning of the 3rd/end of the 2nd pick as well.

So again, not likely the Wings get another 1st for moving down 1 position. The real leverage comes into play for a team that wants to jump Ottawa expecting them to take a d-man with the 5th pick.

Posted by d ca on 07/01/20 at 01:33 AM ET

Shanny_Fan's avatar

Interesting charts. Applying those values to this years draft, it might actually make more sense for the wings to trade one of their 2nd rounders or 3rd rounders to move up to the 2nd/3rd spot and get Stuzzle or Byfield.

Posted by Shanny_Fan on 07/01/20 at 04:33 PM ET

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Welcome to Abel to Yzerman, a Red Wing blog since 1977.  No other site on the internet has better-researched, fact-laden and better prepared discussions than A2Y.  Re-phrase: we do little research, find facts and stats highly overrated and claim little to no preparation.  There are 19 readers of A2Y. No more, no less. All of them, except maybe one, are juvenile in nature.  Reminding them of that in the comment section will only encourage them to prove that. Your suggestions and critiques are welcome: wphoulihan@gmail.com