Kukla's Korner

Abel to Yzerman

Is 20 Enough?

It’s not often I admit to agreeing with our Diggers, but Teddy Kulfan isn’t wrong with this one.

The money-grab for Parise and Suter just got a little richer.

On Wednesday, the Flames acquired negotiating rights to defenseman Dennis Wideman and promptly signed him to a five-year contract worth $26.25 million (cap hit: $5.25 million).

Wideman had 46 points (11 goals) last season for the Capitals and was minus-8. He played a lot on the thirddefensive pairing for the Capitals.

So if Wideman is worth $5 million, then Suter and Parise should command double that.

If Parise and Suter both leave their comfy homes (where neither one will win a Cup), I think we’re looking at 10 million apiece.  Unfortunately, we need more than just those two.  Our Diggers tell us we sit at 20 million (when you discount the 4 all the smart kids say we absolutely must pay to re-sign Home Keys and Former Dive Kyle Quincey).

Tick Tock is going to have to go all in for one or the other, and neither deal looks like it’s going to happen on 1 July because each of them seem intent on giving the Devils and Bubba last chance at matching. 

If that’s the case, how does Holland wait for both and very possibly miss out on the fewer and fewer plan B options (Semin, Garrison, Doan)?  These are all questions we’ve all been asking but there’s just no good answer.

He’s got to go all in for one. He’s got to devote big-time 1 July effort to a plan b and hold back 10 million for…

...Suter.  As much as I want Parise on this team because he just seems like he has that Wing character, it’s Suter we really need.  It’s Suter because it’s the blue line that is so desperately hurting right now.  If we miss out on Parise but get Semin, scoring will at least increase from what we had this season.  But if we lose Suter, and the others sign elsewhere, and we’re stuck with a Former Dive, a Big E, etc…that spells big, big trouble.

But…I still think there is a chance that Holland’s Schultz declaration yesterday was a very strategic smoke screen. He had to know this kid was heading to Canada, way western Canada, but he threw it out there anyway that Detroit was interested.  It’s just so unlike our Tick Tock to make a move like that. 

And while I think that signing both Parise and Suter is becoming more and more of a sick fantasy, there’s still something nagging at me. 

A grand plan? Maybe.  60-plus. That’s how many of Parise’s games Mark Howe scouted the last two years.  The Wings want this kid badly. But while they want Parise, it’s Suter they need. 

Kenny’s Critical Days of Summer and a Grand Plan to bring them both to Hockeytown.  It’s not impossible, just less likely then it was a month ago. 

Our bottom line has shifted though, and you know it has.  Our definition of a failure last month would have been not signing both.  Now?  Ultimate failure—and this is absolute worst case—is waiting to get both or even one, but missing out and sitting around on 3 July with 20 million left to spend, all the plan B’s packing up and moving to bad places. 

Both is what we want, but Suter.  Boy, Suter is what we really need. 

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Comments

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Primis's avatar

The kids are coming, and the kids are allright.

Posted by Hippy Dave from Portland by way of Detroit on 06/28/12 at 07:27 AM ET

This.  I think some people are losing sight of why the Wings have struggled.

It’s not the kids.  It’s the washed-up vets (Bert, Cleary) and the underperforming vets (Z, Hudler, Ericsson) that have caused the problems.  I’ve said it before, there would be far worse outcomes than DET having to lean heavily on Nyquist, Emmerton, Smith, Kindl, etc.

Posted by Primis on 06/28/12 at 12:57 PM ET

Nathan's avatar

Again, guys, remember these contracts are guaranteed. Unless Parise and Suter do not want long-term deals for another reason (and there’s no indication they are averse to long-term deals), a cap hit of $7 or $8 million is not an unreasonable expectation for those players, wherever they land. This is because they are likely to end up with 7+ year deals.

Also, the likely Crosby extension was just reported as shaking out to a roughly $9 million AAV. If that is the case, that’s a nice reset/check on the overpayment for Wideman. Parise is not Crosby, and Suter is not the Crosby of D-men (that’s to say, he’s not undeniably the most valuable D in the league).

In a funny way, we owe Ray Shero a thanks for this. Of course he’ll be bidding for the same UFAs, but by getting Crosby on a $9 million AAV, he’s put a nice implied AAV cap on the rest of the market.

Posted by Nathan from the scoresheet! on 06/28/12 at 12:58 PM ET

J.J. from Kansas's avatar

Criminy, Doan is Bertuzzi with more-consistent scoring and that takes fewer dumb penalties.

There we go.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/28/12 at 01:00 PM ET

Primis's avatar

Criminy, Doan is Bertuzzi with more-consistent scoring and that takes fewer dumb penalties.

There we go.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/28/12 at 12:00 PM ET

Unfair.  You could replace Doan’s name with just about any other player and that statement would still be true.

Posted by Primis on 06/28/12 at 01:08 PM ET

J.J. from Kansas's avatar

The complete list of UFA wingers who had more points and less penalty minutes than Bertuzzi:

Petr Sykora
Steve Sullivan
Jiri Hudler
Jaromir Jagr
Alex Semin
Teemu Selanne
P.A. Parenteau
Zach Parise
Ray Whitney
Shane Doan

The extended list of forwards when you factor in guys who didn’t play enough games, but had a good pace and guys you could seriously argue didn’t score as often because they didn’t get Bertuzzi’s support

Mikael Samuelsson
Jordin Tootoo
Andrei Kostitsyn
Lee Stempniak (right on the cusp).

Throwing out the guys whose salary demands are going to be way too high and assuming Shane Doan comes in at less than his $4.5M salary was last season, that would leave him running against:

Samuelsson
Tootoo (FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCH NO)
Sykora
Sullivan
Kostitsyn (DOUBLE-FUUUUUUUUUUCH NO)

Shane Doan would make a good addition to the Wings and would double-solve that grinding forward with a mean-streak necessity so many think we have.

All that said, if Shane Doan wants the same $4.5M he made last year or close to it, he can get fuched.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/28/12 at 01:20 PM ET

Vladimir16's avatar

Criminy, Doan is Franzen, with less-consistent scoring and that takes even dumber penalties.
Make up your minds, guys.  If you hate Franzen, you can’t be all about Doan…
Posted by Primis on 06/28/12 at 11:53 AM ET

WRONG! Doan is not scared. BAM!

Posted by Vladimir16 from Grand River Valley on 06/28/12 at 02:09 PM ET

Avatar

There is one big thing that people seem to forget.  While the Wings superstars may not be as young as they once were, they are exceptionally humble and don’t seek the limelight.  For a guy like Suter, who by all indications is a laidback guy, don’t think that a locker room full of similar guys who keep their egos in check, is not appealing.  Could Pittsburgh with Sid and Geno say the same thing?

Posted by booyah! from chicago on 06/28/12 at 02:11 PM ET

Vladimir16's avatar

there would be far worse outcomes than DET having to lean heavily on Nyquist, Emmerton, Smith, Kindl, etc.
Posted by Primis on 06/28/12 at 11:57 AM

Having Emmerton and Kindle in that sentence just made me throw up in my mouth a little.

Posted by Vladimir16 from Grand River Valley on 06/28/12 at 02:13 PM ET

Primis's avatar

Here’s the thing though JJ… of Doan, Samuelsson, Tootoo, Sykora, Sullivan, and Kostitsyn, I don’t see any one of them as a real upgrade to the Wings’ roster to where you should be shutting out one of the kids waiting.

Thinking like this is how Dallas and Colorado screwed themselves, always trying to bring in an aging vet instead of developing kids even though the vet was never a real upgrade, and the next thing you knew there were no more kids, or wins, or playoffs.  At some point the Emmertons and Nyquists and Anderssons and Tatars will have to actually play and get real ice time.  You can’t just keep saying “Next year, next year…” because next thing you know you’re putting 2 or 3 of them on waivers and losing them for absolutely nothing.  That’s what the Wings did with Quincey the first time…

Posted by Primis on 06/28/12 at 02:14 PM ET

Avatar

stop thinking of Emmerton as a legitimate prospect.  The guy is a borderline AHL/NHLer, if we’re counting on the “Emmerton’s” to step up and take bigger roles, the Wings really are screwed.  Emmerton is not physical, cannot win face offs, and doesn’t have break out speed.  He’s a tweener between an AHL player and a 15th forward at the NHL level.

Posted by booyah! from chicago on 06/28/12 at 02:17 PM ET

RWBill's avatar

All that said, if Shane Doan wants the same $4.5M he made last year or close to it, he can get fuched.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/28/12 at 12:20 PM ET

Do you think that’s a reasonable expectation, for a 35 year old, long time captain, former all-star, to sign for less than his previous year’s, unspectacular salary? I wouldn’t venture above it, but would be surprised if he was offered below it.

Posted by RWBill from Brush Street cruising with Super Creepy Rob Lowe. on 06/28/12 at 02:19 PM ET

Vladimir16's avatar

stop thinking of Emmerton as a legitimate prospect.  The guy is a borderline AHL/NHLer, if we’re counting on the “Emmerton’s” to step up and take bigger roles, the Wings really are screwed.  Emmerton is not physical, cannot win face offs, and doesn’t have break out speed.  He’s a tweener between an AHL player and a 15th forward at the NHL level.
Posted by booyah! from chicago on 06/28/12 at 01:17 PM ET

This ^^^ and he would have watching from the pressbox all year if Eaves and Mursak hadn’t gone done w/ injuries. Troof.

Posted by Vladimir16 from Grand River Valley on 06/28/12 at 02:20 PM ET

RWBill's avatar

Cap at $70.2M, says Khan!

http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index.ssf/2012/06/nhl_salary_cap_for_2012-13_set.html

Posted by RWBill from Brush Street cruising with Super Creepy Rob Lowe. on 06/28/12 at 02:38 PM ET

HockeytownOverhaul's avatar

Emmerton has a good upside.  Consistency and self-confidence are lacking for him.  Notice that he buddied up with Mike Commadore of all people when he came up?  Not Helm and Abby like Miller and Eaves.  The 7th Dman UFA pick-up who wasn’t necessarily well liked by the coach.

He can make good hits, when he stops thinking about the game.  He can make sick tip ins and he’s sneaky moving through the Ozone.. barely ever makes it there but he’s really better there.  Doesn’t help he had Homer who really only shines in his own end and a myriad of other wingers.

We need a personality in the bottom 6 to challenge all our younger guys to be better and instill some confidence.


I’d still trade him, but I’d make that case doing it.

Posted by HockeytownOverhaul on 06/28/12 at 02:50 PM ET

Vladimir16's avatar

I’d still trade him, but I’d make that case doing it.
Posted by HockeytownOverhaul on 06/28/12 at 01:50 PM ET

I’d thought you’d gone mad then I read this ^^^^  Well played.

Posted by Vladimir16 from Grand River Valley on 06/28/12 at 02:59 PM ET

RWBill's avatar

The most interesting, and disconcerting, aspect of the discussions today is the possibility of the Plan Bs already being nibbled away by FA time or going off the boards early so that for a large number of teams FA season becomes an all out $9-10M HomeRun or bust.

Posted by RWBill from Brush Street cruising with Super Creepy Rob Lowe. on 06/28/12 at 03:18 PM ET

J.J. from Kansas's avatar

Here’s the thing though JJ… of Doan, Samuelsson, Tootoo, Sykora, Sullivan, and Kostitsyn, I don’t see any one of them as a real upgrade to the Wings’ roster to where you should be shutting out one of the kids waiting.

It’s a good point.  Babs listed Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Filppula, and Franzen as the guys who are in the Wings’ top six.  Go ahead and sign Parise or whomever and you’ve got one space.  It just kind of defaults to Bertuzzi right now because of last year and I’ve said several times this summer that I want Nyquist to get a shot at the top six.

Do you think that’s a reasonable expectation, for a 35 year old, long time captain, former all-star, to sign for less than his previous year’s, unspectacular salary? I wouldn’t venture above it, but would be surprised if he was offered below it.

Posted by RWBill from missing the Tiki Bar at The Shores, Daytona Beach. on 06/28/12 at 01:19 PM ET

Shane Doan’s production has gone down each of the last two years. He signed that contract when he was 31.  I could see somebody foolishly giving him a raise or I could see somebody foolishly giving Doan the same amount, but he’s expected to produce less now than he was producing when he earned that contract.  I’m not going to begrudge him demanding $4.5 because I think he can get it, but I sure as hell wouldn’t pay him that.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/28/12 at 03:21 PM ET

Avatar

Consistency and self-confidence are lacking for him.

That’s a perfect reason to trade him.  Last season he was around 14/14 on the depth chart (assuming everyone is healthy) and he’s not going to build any consistence or self-confidence by being constantly rotated in and out of the line up, only to play on an ever-changing fourth line when he does make it into the lineup.

Posted by Garth on 06/28/12 at 03:46 PM ET

Vladimir16's avatar

That’s a perfect reason to trade him.  Last season he was around 14/14 on the depth chart (assuming everyone is healthy) and he’s not going to build any consistence or self-confidence by being constantly rotated in and out of the line up, only to play on an ever-changing fourth line when he does make it into the lineup.
Posted by Garth on 06/28/12 at 02:46 PM ET

That would be great but I don’t know if anybody would be a buyer.

Posted by Vladimir16 from Grand River Valley on 06/28/12 at 04:09 PM ET

J.J. from Kansas's avatar

Emmerton is going to go the Quincey round 1 route because other GMs know where Detroit stands too.  Emmerton is good enough to be a fourth line center in the NHL, he’s just not good enough to do it in Detroit.  The kid has plenty of upside, but I wouldn’t offer Ken Holland dick for him because it’s just as likely he’s going to end up on waivers anyway.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/28/12 at 04:16 PM ET

Avatar

Posted by Vladimir16 on 06/28/12 at 03:09 PM ET

Well yeah, that’s the rub, I guess.

All I’m really saying is that to expect that Emmerton is going to doesn’t make sense, because he’s not going to get a real chance to prove himself in Detroit.

Posted by Garth on 06/28/12 at 04:17 PM ET

RWBill's avatar

If we do get one or two additions at forward, someone, or two, will have to go, especially if Eaves and Cleary are healthy.  Miller at 14 goals and his consistent play would be kept over Cory.  I believe Emmerton will find a roster spot on a NHL team eventually, hard to see that being Detroit this year.

Apparently we’re writing off Homer, too, as I believe The Franchise is unless FA comes up way short.

Posted by RWBill from Brush Street cruising with Super Creepy Rob Lowe. on 06/28/12 at 04:20 PM ET

RWBill's avatar

The Weekend begins.  Bassnectar, The 808 Track.
Electric Forest Festival, Rothbury, MI

West Sigh-Yeeed!

Posted by RWBill from Brush Street cruising with Super Creepy Rob Lowe. on 06/28/12 at 05:16 PM ET

calquake's avatar

Posted by RWBill from missing the Tiki Bar at The Shores, Daytona Beach. on 06/28/12 at 04:16 PM ET

Watch out for the brown acid, man.

Posted by calquake on 06/28/12 at 05:19 PM ET

Vladimir16's avatar

HIPPIES! *shakes fist in the air and walks away…. with a limp*

Posted by Vladimir16 from Grand River Valley on 06/28/12 at 05:22 PM ET

Avatar

Also, the likely Crosby extension was just reported as shaking out to a roughly $9 million AAV. If that is the case, that’s a nice reset/check on the overpayment for Wideman. Parise is not Crosby, and Suter is not the Crosby of D-men (that’s to say, he’s not undeniably the most valuable D in the league).

In a funny way, we owe Ray Shero a thanks for this. Of course he’ll be bidding for the same UFAs, but by getting Crosby on a $9 million AAV, he’s put a nice implied AAV cap on the rest of the market.

Posted by Nathan from the scoresheet! on 06/28/12 at 11:58 AM ET

Crosby and the Penguins have agreed to terms on a 12-year contract extension worth $104.4 million. The contract, which will go into effect starting with the 2013-14 season and will last until Crosby is 37 years old, comes with an average annual value of $8.7 million.

There’s no way Suter or Parise will cost more with a comparable long-term contract.

Posted by Alex on 06/28/12 at 07:46 PM ET

Avatar

I think it may take a team $8.5 million AAV to sign Suter long term and $8.3 million AAV to sign Parise just because there seem to be lots of suitors going after them.

Posted by Alex on 06/28/12 at 08:05 PM ET

Rumbear's avatar

So if Wideman is worth $5 million, then Suter and Parise should command double that.

Blah, blah, blah….,yeah, yeah, yeah, we are talking Wideman big girl panties versus Red Wings Boxers…get a clue…we are free ballin this summer. 

Jeebus youse guys needs to take up golf or buy a boat and goes water skiing…the summer heat is gonna kill ya. I knows you are all smarter than the average bear, but…..fer crisakes let Tick Tock do his job.

As an alternative git yur ass up to Dakotaville and help 42jeff move back home….or….drive Malik north in his pimped out ride so some facts can enter the equation….opportunity is knocking.

Posted by Rumbear from Top O the Hasek, with 3 fingers of rum & a cigar.. on 06/29/12 at 04:47 AM ET

Avatar

There’s no way Suter or Parise will cost more with a comparable long-term contract.

Shero has set the cap for signing Parise to the Penguins (much like Holland did with Lidstrom), but it does nothing for the open market.  Crosby took the hometown price but other teams who really want Parise will go higher.

Posted by Garth on 06/29/12 at 01:20 PM ET

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Welcome to Abel to Yzerman, a Red Wing blog since 1977.  No other site on the internet has better-researched, fact-laden and better prepared discussions than A2Y.  Re-phrase: we do little research, find facts and stats highly overrated and claim little to no preparation.  There are 19 readers of A2Y. No more, no less. All of them, except maybe one, are juvenile in nature.  Reminding them of that in the comment section will only encourage them to prove that. Your suggestions and critiques are welcome: wphoulihan@gmail.com