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Do You Expect A First Round Pick And More If Mike Green Is Traded?

from Rob Vollman at NHL.com,

For teams looking to add a defenseman before the 2018 NHL Trade Deadline on Feb. 26, Mike Green of the Detroit Red Wings has earned top consideration.

Given their similarities, Green is drawing comparisons to Kevin Shattenkirk, the headliner of the 2017 NHL Trade Deadline class. Shattenkirk was acquired from the St. Louis Blues by the Washington Capitals on Feb. 27, 2017....

Shattenkirk's trade also provides a clue as to what Detroit may be expecting in return for Green. St. Louis received Zach Sanford, a first-round pick, plus two conditional picks for Shattenkirk.

That package isn't without precedent; it's almost exactly what the Toronto Maple Leafs obtained from the Boston Bruins for Tomas Kaberle at the 2011 NHL Trade Deadline.

The Red Wings may not be expecting much less to part with Green, who can be an unrestricted free agent July 1.

more with Vollman taking a deeper look at Green...

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Shattenkirk is a better player then Green is. I think the real question is will some other GM make that offer for Green?

Posted by howeandhowe from Seattle on 02/14/18 at 01:07 PM ET

Paul's avatar

Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic on trade deadline picture, this on the Wings.

Pending UFA Mike Green is the big fish on the market for the Wings. He’s got a full no-trade but is willing to waive it for the right contender. At least a two-asset haul including a first-round pick seems part of the ask. Does GM Ken Holland and his former Hall of Fame superstar Steve Yzerman get together on a deal? Or can Holland entice the Caps into taking Green back?

Goalie Petr Mrazek is an RFA July 1 but it’s doubtful the Wings qualify him at $4 million so he’s really a rental in many ways, as colleague Craig Custance argued earlier this week. If I’m Holland, I’m all over the Flyers and Islanders with Mrazek. Otherwise, Holland will obviously listen on hockey deals for several of his players, but keep in mind as he continues to transition the Red Wings, he also wants a competitive team next fall, so this isn’t about giving away players for draft picks for the sake of it. If there’s a hockey deal that makes sense, he’ll listen to it.

Posted by Paul from Motown Area on 02/14/18 at 01:14 PM ET

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Part of the appeal for adding Shattenkirk as a rental was the opportunity to win his favour and sign a long-term extension. He was only 28 at the time, unlike other UFAs that are typically well into their 30’s.

I highly doubt anyone is desperately trying to woo Mike Green into signing a long-term extension. He’ll be 33 when next season kicks off. And he’s had a lot of miles on him. That’s not the kind of guy most teams covet. So he’s likely viewed as a pure rental. As such, the cost to acquire him won’t be anywhere close to Shattenkirk. Vegas has 3 2nd rounders in the 2019 draft. I’d take 2 of those and call it a win.

Posted by fatsavage on 02/14/18 at 01:15 PM ET

ilovehomers's avatar

I doubt if Kenny will want to push both of those draft picks back to 2019. I’ll take 2 second rounders, 1 in 2018 and 1 in 2019 if a team can pull it off. And provided they aren’t more towards the 3rd round.

I know, I ask so much! smile

Posted by ilovehomers on 02/14/18 at 01:19 PM ET

duhduhduh's avatar

I remain doubtful that the trade ever happens.

Posted by duhduhduh on 02/14/18 at 01:21 PM ET

Paul's avatar

Here is Greg Wyshynski of ESPN on the Wings…

Likely available: D Mike Green (32, UFA, $6M); G Petr Mrazek (26, RFA, $4M); Xavier Ouellet (24, 2019 UFA, $1.25M); LW/RW Tomas Tatar (27, 2021 UFA, $5.3M); LW/RW Gustav Nyquist (28, 2019 UFA, $4.75M, no-trade clause).

Would they actually deal… Andreas Athanasiou (23, RFA, $1,387,500)? The speedy winger is putting up the best per-game numbers in his career, and is coming off a bitter contract impasse with GM Ken Holland.

Deadline game plan: Trading Green. There’s going to be a robust market for the veteran, puck-moving defenseman, with the Lightning and the Maple Leafs among the suitors—two teams that could end up facing each other in Round 1 of the playoffs. If the Wings can’t pull at least what the Blues got for Kevin Shattenkirk last season, it’ll be a whiff.

Keep in mind that wherever Mrazek ends up for the rest of the season, that team can walk away from him in the summer during arbitration.

Tatar is, for my money, a better player than Nyquist, and has no trade protection. But he also has the higher average annual value on his contract and the longer commitment. Not for nothing, but Dallas GM Jim Nill and Tampa Bay GM Steve Yzerman were with Detroit when these two were drafted.

Best-case scenario: The Wings find there’s a bidding war for Green, and get above-market value for him.

Posted by Paul from Motown Area on 02/14/18 at 01:22 PM ET

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I have no real expectation. I’d love a first but am prepared for a Brendan Smith-like return.

Posted by CharDeeMacDennis on 02/14/18 at 01:31 PM ET

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I know, I ask so much!
Posted by ilovehomers on 02/14/18 at 12:19 PM ET

GTFO!

Posted by howeandhowe from Seattle on 02/14/18 at 01:33 PM ET

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If I’m Holland, I’m all over the Flyers and Islanders with Mrazek.

So why Mrazek? If we are rebuilding, trading Howard is a better choice

Posted by George0211 on 02/14/18 at 01:35 PM ET

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He’s got a full no-trade but is willing to waive it for the right contender.

So, the conversation between KH and Green happened already or this is just LeBrun speculation that Green is willing to waive?

Posted by VPalmer on 02/14/18 at 01:38 PM ET

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Do You Expect A First Round Pick And More If Mike Green Is Traded?

I honestly do not see much reason to trade him if it’s less than a first rounder. If it’s Washington or Toronto, that second rounder will be a late second rounder I guess. What are the chances of us drafting somebody valuable at pick #55 (if lucky, maybe we will get a second pair dman with that pick in 5 years)? If they like Green and he agrees to sign for somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 years at $4 mil, I would better have him on a team to help younger guys with their development.

Posted by VPalmer on 02/14/18 at 01:43 PM ET

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So why Mrazek? If we are rebuilding, trading Howard is a better choice

I honestly do not think Howard can be traded with another year remaining on his contract. Mrazek will probably get us a better return. But, of course, if Mrazek gets you a 5th rounder and Howard can be traded only for a 6th rounder, it would not be smart imo, of course, to trade Mrazek and keep Howard. I also still believe they just like Howard a lot more than Mrazek and for loyalty/comfort sake would much rather prefer to deal Mrazek.

Posted by VPalmer on 02/14/18 at 01:46 PM ET

Down River Dan's avatar

I would be floored if they get a 1st rnd pick.  I dunno, maybe there’s a GM that crazy..???

Also, I believe AA will be moved…maybe not at the trade deadline, but more likely at the draft.

Posted by Down River Dan on 02/14/18 at 01:58 PM ET

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If I’m Holland, I’m all over the Flyers and Islanders with Mrazek.
So why Mrazek? If we are rebuilding, trading Howard is a better choice
Posted by George0211 on 02/14/18 at 12:35 PM ET

Because….

Goalie Petr Mrazek is an RFA July 1 but it’s doubtful the Wings qualify him at $4 million so he’s really a rental in many ways,

I think Petr would net a bigger return because of his salary cap situation.  If you move Howard they’ll have to come to terms with Mrazek and given the way the last couple of years have gone I don’t see that working out so well.

 

Posted by Steve1306 on 02/14/18 at 02:00 PM ET

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I believe AA will be moved

Imo that would depend on who is our GM at that time

Posted by VPalmer on 02/14/18 at 02:01 PM ET

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they’ll have to come to terms with Mrazek and given the way the last couple of years have gone I don’t see that working out so well.

On the other hand Mrazek’s season stats, losing #1 status last year, not being taken for free by Vegas, etc will make it more difficult for Mrazek agent to justify crazy salary demands. During last negotiations Mrazek was clearly considered our goalie of the future and “Price in the making”. Now that aura is gone, so he might be OK with another bridge contract for less money than he is making now.

Posted by VPalmer on 02/14/18 at 02:04 PM ET

duhduhduh's avatar

I honestly do not see much reason to trade him if it’s less than a first rounder. If it’s Washington or Toronto, that second rounder will be a late second rounder I guess. What are the chances of us drafting somebody valuable at pick #55

Colton Parayko was 86th overall.  Just saying.

 

Posted by duhduhduh on 02/14/18 at 02:12 PM ET

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So why Mrazek?

Because Howard is a consistent goalie and when you’re rebuilding (ie. ideally bringing in young players and teaching them how to be NHLers) you want a consistent goalie so that every time a young player makes a mistake, you know the goalie has a chance to bail him out.

Having inconsistent forwards, inconsistent defense and inconsistent goaltending is how you end up sucking for a long time like Edmonton, Buffalo and Toronto did.

Having a solid, consistent goalie is how you end up with a rebuild that takes less time than you thought it would, like in Toronto.

Posted by CharDeeMacDennis on 02/14/18 at 02:14 PM ET

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——-Colton Parayko was 86th overall
——Yes, also Keith, Webber, Subban, Josi, etc.
But what are the chance WE draft anybody good there?:)
Of course, I understand this is not the approach to take, have to believe.

Posted by VPalmer on 02/14/18 at 02:19 PM ET

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I also still believe they just like Howard a lot more than Mrazek and for loyalty/comfort sake would much rather prefer to deal Mrazek.

Either that or they’re pragmatic and see that Howard is the better goalie, and that it’s completely unreasonable to label someone injury-prone when his last injury was the result of being hammered by his own defenseman, and that at some point you have to stop giving out big contracts based on potential and just play the better goalie.

Posted by CharDeeMacDennis on 02/14/18 at 02:23 PM ET

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So Ottawa was willing to dump Phaneuf, just to save some cash. Cap hits are equal. But this was a way for a cash-strapped owner to save cash, simply because Gaborik’s salary is much lower than his cap hit.

I wonder if Kenny ever got involved in these discussions? Probably not. But he should have. A guy like Helm for example, has 3 more years at $3.85M cap hit. Or $11.55M of cap hit over 3 years. But his cash salary is only $9.85M (haha - only). But that’s the kind of contract that may appeal to Melnyk. He can even tell his fanbase that we’re not a budget team. Look at our total cap hit, while actually paying out way less cash.

So why not make a deal like Helm + a cheap contract like Ouellet for Phaneuf at $5.25M. Equal cap hits. Phaneuf is still overpaid. But if he’s playing next year on a 3rd pair with a rookie like Hronek or Cholowski then he gives them a veteran mentor. I mean, Phaneuf is definitely an upgrade on guys like Jensen, Ouellet, Dekeyser. Don’t forget Green will be gone. So it may have been a chance to dump a redundant asset like Helm and add a guy that can actually help this roster.

But yeah, trades are hard. Especially when Helm has an NTC. By the way, Detroit has more NTCs/NMCs than any other organization. nice planning Kenny!

Posted by fatsavage on 02/14/18 at 02:47 PM ET

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So why not make a deal like Helm + a cheap contract like Ouellet for Phaneuf at $5.25M

I personally see no reason to make this trade

Posted by VPalmer on 02/14/18 at 02:50 PM ET

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I wonder why Dion keeps getting traded?

Posted by howeandhowe from Seattle on 02/14/18 at 02:55 PM ET

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I personally see no reason to make this trade

Posted by VPalmer on 02/14/18 at 01:50 PM ET

OK. But Helm is completely redundant. You make a cap neutral trade but losing a surplus forward and adding a d-man that can actually help mentor the kids. Remember, Green is gone next year. And it sounds like Ouellet is on the move as well. So what do we have coming back next year:

Ericsson-Daley
Dekeyser-Jensen
Kronwall-Cholowski/Hronek

Sorry. But that’s brutal. Jensen is trash and Kronwall should be on LTIR next year. Add Phaneuf and you have this:

Ericsson-Daley
Phaneuf-Cholowski/Hronek
Dekeyser-Cholowski/Hronek

So you promote two kids and pair them with stay-at-home veterans like Phaneuf and Dekeyser. But yeah, expect to see lots of Kronwall and Jensen next year. Kenny will also probably go sign another 30+ UFA d-men to come on, you know, because kids aren’t the answer. Hello Josh Georges anyone?

Posted by fatsavage on 02/14/18 at 03:00 PM ET

ilovehomers's avatar

Every time a trade happens, it’s a trade Kenny should have made. Even though it goes against his philosophy of stockpiling draft picks and building through the draft, and pretty much everyone else who wants to tank or pick up prospects.

Phaneuf would be another over paid vet, with NTC/NMC, blocking a kid.


I can’t with this. lol.

Posted by ilovehomers on 02/14/18 at 03:02 PM ET

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Posted by fatsavage on 02/14/18 at 02:00 PM ET

Sorry, I just do not see any logic in getting Phaneuf here for 3 more years (even for Helm). I would even guess that if KH indeed traded for Phaneuf, you would be the first to post that KH lost his mind.

Posted by VPalmer on 02/14/18 at 03:06 PM ET

PierreC's avatar

I’d like to remind the good folks of this board that Green was a playoffs frequent healthy scratch when he was a member of the Caps.

You never know, the return could be a first rounder from a desperate team…but i don’t think Green is Worth more than a second rounder, plus maybe a third.

Its time to move away from just about anyone on that defensive group. Anyone should be available. Our D group is close to be the worst in the league…

Posted by PierreC from Montreal, Canada on 02/14/18 at 03:07 PM ET

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To be clear, if you can trade Helm for picks, then yeah, obviously you do that. Every. Time.

But Helm’s contract may make that impossible. Nobody wants him. So instead of the current approach of “let’s just patiently wait for some of these awful contracts to expire”...you can also orchestrate a trade involving one awful contract for another. That’s called a hockey trade. LA just did that. And improved their team. We have enough bottom 6 wingers in this organization. If you can convert one of them into a guy like Phaneuf who is a competent 4-5-6 d-man then you explore that. Again, he’s an upgrade on half of our existing d-men.

Green is gone for next season. Kronwall is gone the season after that. Then Daley and Ericsson the season after that. Having Phaneuf as a bit of a bridge to mentor some of the upcoming kids is not the worst idea in the world. Especially when the other benefit is getting rid of Helm and opening up another roster spot up front.

Posted by fatsavage on 02/14/18 at 03:19 PM ET

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You never know, the return could be a first rounder from a desperate team

If Tampa, Caps and Leafs really want Green, we might be able to get something nice for him. Too bad he is not going to be the only dman available and probably not the best dman available.

Posted by VPalmer on 02/14/18 at 03:22 PM ET

ilovehomers's avatar

Posted by VPalmer on 02/14/18 at 02:22 PM ET

Might he be the best rental d-man though? McDonagh, OEL, Karlsson (?) are all long term pieces that will cost (a lot) more than Green.

Posted by ilovehomers on 02/14/18 at 03:24 PM ET

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OK. But Helm is completely redundant. You make a cap neutral trade but losing a surplus forward and adding a d-man that can actually help mentor the kids. Remember, Green is gone next year. And it sounds like Ouellet is on the move as well. So what do we have coming back next year:

Ericsson-Daley
Dekeyser-Jensen
Kronwall-Cholowski/Hronek

Sorry. But that’s brutal. Jensen is trash and Kronwall should be on LTIR next year. Add Phaneuf and you have this:

Ericsson-Daley
Phaneuf-Cholowski/Hronek
Dekeyser-Cholowski/Hronek

So you promote two kids and pair them with stay-at-home veterans like Phaneuf and Dekeyser. But yeah, expect to see lots of Kronwall and Jensen next year. Kenny will also probably go sign another 30+ UFA d-men to come on, you know, because kids aren’t the answer. Hello Josh Georges anyone?

Posted by fatsavage on 02/14/18 at 02:00 PM ET

I like the thought of trading Helm for Phaneuf as you described , but in reality Phaneuf had control of his trade destination. He likely allowed this because his wife works in Hollywood and he moves to a better team.
You lose me on the Holland bashing of signing a veteran. What’s the point of beating the dead horse of “Holland sucks”? Its’ useless and moves the discussion off topic.

Ultimately, I think the return for Green will be the same as Brendan Smith, but I hope it includes conditions for the 2nd rounder to move to a 1st based on the receiving teams’ ascent through the playoffs.

Posted by Train14 on 02/14/18 at 03:47 PM ET

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If Tampa, Caps and Leafs really want Green, we might be able to get something nice for him. Too bad he is not going to be the only dman available and probably not the best dman available.

Weird. You say the Wings would be lucky to get a good return, yet everyone else in the hockey world says that Green is absolutely, definitely, easily the most in-demand rental D. And actual reason behind this? Has there been a time when the most in-demand D didn’t get an overpayment in return?

I mean, let’s ignore the practical king’s ransom Holland got for potentially the dumbest player in the entire league last year, Holland will probably be lucky to get a conditional bag of pucks for Mike Green.  rolleyes

Posted by CharDeeMacDennis on 02/14/18 at 04:13 PM ET

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easily the most in-demand rental D

Might he be the best rental d-man though?

Agree, best rental. I was just talking about not best available dman if some big names are available.

Posted by VPalmer on 02/14/18 at 04:40 PM ET

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Phaneuf would be another over paid vet, with NTC/NMC, blocking a kid.
I can’t with this. lol.
Posted by ilovehomers on 02/14/18 at 02:02 PM ET

Totally my thought too. Dion would just be another aging inflated, worthless contract. It’s not like the fans hate those or anything.

Posted by howeandhowe from Seattle on 02/14/18 at 05:36 PM ET

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Its’ useless and moves the discussion off topic.

welcome to trying to converse with a guy who has multiple personalities. You will learn this after four more attempts to have a rational conversation with FS. Then you will just block him like most other people.

Posted by howeandhowe from Seattle on 02/14/18 at 05:40 PM ET

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Having Phaneuf as a bit of a bridge to mentor some of the upcoming kids is not the worst idea in the world.

but having someone like Abbey or Franz or even Helm, nope, bad ideas. No one else sees these contradictions?

Posted by howeandhowe from Seattle on 02/14/18 at 05:43 PM ET

PierreC's avatar

That’s why i found the Phaneuf Gaborik trade to be weird.

Whats the point to trade big contract useless washed up vets ?

Bring picks in !  If there is significants trades involving the Wings ( i doubt KH cant do that ) i don’t want any players over 30 or its picks…picks and more picks, hopefully for the 2018 draft.

I’m willing to suffer a season or two. If we have good prospects brewing in the farm system.  that at least, will be positive and worth while waiting for good days.

Posted by PierreC from Montreal, Canada on 02/14/18 at 05:53 PM ET

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That’s why i found the Phaneuf Gaborik trade to be weird.

Whats the point to trade big contract useless washed up vets ?

Bring picks in !  If there is significants trades involving the Wings ( i doubt KH cant do that ) i don’t want any players over 30 or its picks…picks and more picks, hopefully for the 2018 draft.

I’m willing to suffer a season or two. If we have good prospects brewing in the farm system.  that at least, will be positive and worth while waiting for good days.

Posted by PierreC from Montreal, Canada on 02/14/18 at 04:53 PM ET

Pierre, nobody in this league would trade picks or prospects for either Phaneuf or Gabroik. The contracts are just too ugly. So instead you have two teams swapping ugly contracts. Same cap hits. LA didn’t need Gaborik, but will make use of Phaneuf. That’s a win for them. Ottawa’s owner saves about $5M over the next 3 years. That’s a win for his pocketbook. Win. Win.

The parallel would be us dumping an awful contract (say Helm) for an equally awful contract (Phaneuf). The benefit would be that Phaneuf can help us more than Helm can, particulalry with Green leaving now, and Kronwall leaving next year. So we have a veteran Phaneuf to complement the coming kids. Losing Helm is good riddance. We’re overflowing in bottom 6 wingers so we wouldn’t even miss the guy.

But the Phaneuf ship has obviously sailed. Doesn’t mean there aren’t other opportunities like that. Again, if you can trade Helm for picks, where do I sign up? But you can’t. His contract sucks. So why not swap players if it better suits your team?

Posted by fatsavage on 02/14/18 at 06:21 PM ET

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since when does a bottom 6 winger net a top 4 defenseman when both have terrible contracts? oh, and Ottawa would have had to eat even more of Dion’s salary or take on another useless contract because detroit does not have the cap space. The Kings are paying $5.25 million and Helm makes $3.85 million.

I guess Glenny’s contract would make up the difference. oh boy. only on PS4 would that trade ever happen: Helm + Glenny = Dion.

sigh.

On the other hand, John Carlson, Green, Dan Hamhuis, Jan Rutta, John Moore, Thomas Hickey, Mark Barberio are all UFAs and could slip into that same suggest role with Carlson being the exception to being payed less than Dion.

Posted by howeandhowe from Seattle on 02/14/18 at 06:55 PM ET

RWBill's avatar

More?
No.

Posted by RWBill on 02/14/18 at 07:53 PM ET

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Welcome to Abel to Yzerman, a Red Wing blog since 1977.  No other site on the internet has better-researched, fact-laden and better prepared discussions than A2Y.  Re-phrase: we do little research, find facts and stats highly overrated and claim little to no preparation.  There are 19 readers of A2Y. No more, no less. All of them, except maybe one, are juvenile in nature.  Reminding them of that in the comment section will only encourage them to prove that. Your suggestions and critiques are welcome: wphoulihan@gmail.com