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Abel to Yzerman

Cap Efficiency

from Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic,

Each contract was graded based on where a player’s combined surplus value and positive value probability fall on the following percentile scale.

Here’s how each team stacks up in regard to the efficiency of all the contracts they currently have signed.

15. Detroit

What once looked like one of the most grotesque cap situations in hockey is finally looking much cleaner. The worst deal on the book, Frans Nielsen’s, is done after this year, as are the deals for Danny DeKeyser and Marc Staal, both of whom are overpaid for what they bring to the table. Nick Leddy probably also qualifies for that.

Aside from that, this is about as boring a cap sheet as you’ll find in the league. Nothing long term, nothing outside the box in either direction. It makes sense that Detroit lands almost square in the middle of the league.

the othet teams (paid)

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Comments

MurrayChadwick's avatar

Do any teams need to shed salary to get cap compliant?

Posted by MurrayChadwick from Window Seat on the Captain's Ship on 08/12/21 at 04:52 PM ET

Paul's avatar

MC, the CapFriendy home page as the projected numbers.

Posted by Paul from Motown Area on 08/12/21 at 05:39 PM ET

SYF's avatar

MC, the CapFriendy home page as the projected numbers.

Posted by Paul from Motown Area on 08/12/21 at 05:39 PM ET

The more I look at it, Boss, the more I truly appreciate what Yzerman’s done with the lineup and their respective contracts.

Posted by SYF from impossible and oddly communally possessive sluts on 08/12/21 at 07:02 PM ET

RWBill's avatar

It didn’t take long for Holland to take Edmonton $3M over the Cap.

Posted by RWBill on 08/12/21 at 07:29 PM ET

ilovehomers's avatar

Klefbom to LTIR likely. Plus CF is showing 25 players on main roster.

The closer you get to the ceiling, the more LTIR benefit you get. Its the reality of a contender.

Posted by ilovehomers on 08/12/21 at 08:09 PM ET

ilovehomers's avatar

Wings were screwed with these long contracts, and the best remedy was time.

Posted by ilovehomers on 08/12/21 at 08:10 PM ET

SYF's avatar

It didn’t take long for Holland to take Edmonton $3M over the Cap.

Posted by RWBill on 08/12/21 at 07:29 PM ET

And only five draft picks for the 2022 NHL draft.

Posted by SYF from impossible and oddly communally possessive sluts on 08/12/21 at 10:02 PM ET

Avatar

Holland is doing what he is supposed to. When you have some low, bu reasonable chance for the Cup, 5-10%, you need toq maximize it, and not maximize 5% window. So, all in with players useful now, and useless after three seasons makes you more likely to win one cup in the next three years than one over McDavid’s career using conservative long-term strategy. I would say that if Holland doesn’t use his picks in the next three years first and foremost to help the team now, he is not doing his job. Same for Toronto.

Posted by Davor on 08/13/21 at 02:12 AM ET

MurrayChadwick's avatar

Posted by Davor on 08/13/21 at 02:12 AM ET

100%, that’s how the cap game is played, its not a flat or steady line, its a roller coaster, you build up and up and up when you have your window, and then you go scorched earth and take that ride down to the basement, build up momentum, and build back up again.

Posted by MurrayChadwick from Window Seat on the Captain's Ship on 08/13/21 at 09:13 AM ET

Avatar

I’m pretty shocked Detroit came in at #15. Their cap situation is about perfect for the position where they are. I’ve not sure how Staal or Leddy’s are negatives when they have plenty of cap space to spare.

Yzerman has, so far, managed the cap well. All the bloated contracts are just about gone. The players he’s added/re-upped are on relatively short-term deals. It’ll be interesting to see what Hronek gets. Admittedly he hasn’t had to deal with trying to retain a “superstar” player yet.

Posted by evileye on 08/13/21 at 09:25 AM ET

ilovehomers's avatar

Posted by Davor on 08/13/21 at 02:12 AM ET

Said it so much better than I did!

Posted by ilovehomers on 08/13/21 at 10:02 AM ET

Avatar

Posted by evileye on 08/13/21 at 09:25 AM ET

I haven’t read the article, but it sounds like the methodology is based on how productive the roster is versus how much the team is actually spending. It’s purely about cost efficiency, which means Detroit doesn’t get credit for money they don’t spend.

In other words, Detroit being ranked 15th means that they’re essentially getting what they pay for. Because they pay less than almost every other team in the league (third lowest payroll), they don’t get much. But because they have a ton of cap space, they are potentially set up to increase their efficiency ranking substantially if they end up spending that extra cash wisely.

I agree with you that Detroit has one of the best cap situations in the entire league, based on having tons of space, few long-term commitments, and a good GM. I also think Dom is correct that their current payroll represents fair market value for the quality of players they have, by and large.

Posted by Sven22 from Grand Rapids on 08/13/21 at 01:07 PM ET

Avatar

Posted by Davor on 08/13/21 at 02:12 AM ET

I have nothing against going all in for a Cup when you have an open window and not worrying about the cap problems in the longer-term future. The problem isn’t Holland’s basic strategy; the problem is that he simply is not very good at evaluating mid-tier talent.

Edmonton did the hard part (get elite players in their primes) and keeps screwing up the comparatively easy part (avoid filling out the rest of the roster with expensive, below-replacement-level players). That’s been their problem longer than Holland has been there, to be sure, but he certainly hasn’t made it any better.

Posted by Sven22 from Grand Rapids on 08/13/21 at 01:26 PM ET

Avatar

Totally get that Holland has to try and maximize
the window Edmonton has while the two superstars are
under contract. Of course that also fits his own contract window.

The questions are, as stated above, whether he’s maximizing
space and assets to surround them with strong enough talent
in a cap-efficient enough way to actually win anything (not saying it’s all or
nothing - Cup or total failure - there are simply too many other variables beyond his control; but to be able to truly contend within that window).

He’s thrown away some picks for nothing. He’s added some bloated contracts that add little. Goaltending isn’t good enough. Defense is arguably worse now.
Whoever succeeds him will have some bad long term deals on the books, and, knowing Holland, likely too few picks for a while. When you hit bottom after trying to contend you better either have spent top picks to get a contender at least really close, or have top picks remaining to begin the rebuild.

Posted by lefty.30 on 08/13/21 at 04:31 PM ET

d ca's avatar

The contracts being graded are every healthy, non-ELC skater that my model has a projection for, as well as any dead money a team has on their cap via buyouts, salary retention and cap recapture penalties. That means no RFAs without a deal, no players on an entry-level contract, no players without significant NHL-playing time, no players on LTIR and no goalies…..Unused cap space is also not part of the equation as there’s no telling exactly how that space would be used….

Each team was graded based on the surplus value they bring in per player (all dead money counts as one) as well as the average probability those deals will provide positive value. Both are based on a player’s age-adjusted projected win output according to GSVA and the uncertainty in that projection for future seasons, along with the cost of a win on the open market. How much each team spends to obtain those wins will also be graded….

FYI, for those with T-mobile/Sprint the upcoming Tuesday reward is a free 6 month subscription to the Athletic.

Colorado is 1, Florida is 2, and the Leafs are 3.

(re the Leafs)  Slap in their playoff stats and this team is closer to the bottom of the league instead, fully deserving of any “overpaid bum” narrative.

Posted by d ca on 08/13/21 at 10:26 PM ET

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Welcome to Abel to Yzerman, a Red Wing blog since 1977.  No other site on the internet has better-researched, fact-laden and better prepared discussions than A2Y.  Re-phrase: we do little research, find facts and stats highly overrated and claim little to no preparation.  There are 19 readers of A2Y. No more, no less. All of them, except maybe one, are juvenile in nature.  Reminding them of that in the comment section will only encourage them to prove that. Your suggestions and critiques are welcome: wphoulihan@gmail.com