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Abel to Yzerman

A Bad Night For The Wings

Down Goes Brown pick the winners and losers from last night,

Look, Red Wing fans knew the odds. There was a roughly 50 percent chance this could happen. That’s the way it’s worked since 2016, and we’ve seen the last place overall team drop all the way to number four on multiple occasions, including a Colorado team in 2017 that might have been even worse than this year’s Wings. If you’re a Detroit fan and you were blindsided by what happened on Friday, you weren’t paying attention....

Red Wings fans are mad, and they should be mad. They get to be unbearable for the next few days. Save them your lectures about lucking into Pavel Datsyuk or getting to watch Nicklas Lidstrom. They don’t want to hear it right now, and that’s the way it should be. This hurts, a lot.

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Comments

Paul's avatar

HSJ with some options at the #4 spot in the draft.

Posted by Paul from Motown Area on 06/27/20 at 02:26 PM ET

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The 4th should be worst at least a mid 20ish pick and a 2nd.

Posted by ThatGuy on 06/27/20 at 02:45 PM ET

OlderThanChelios's avatar

...we’ve seen the last place overall team drop all the way to number four on multiple occasions…

But how many teams in the 1-10 draft spots have dropped the maximum three spots in three out of the last four lottery drawings, and dropped two spots in the other? That’s not just “bad luck,” that’s a ridiculously flawed system.

Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids, MI on 06/27/20 at 04:00 PM ET

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The 4th should be worst at least a mid 20ish pick and a 2nd.

Posted by ThatGuy on 06/27/20 at 02:45 PM ET

Based on previous research into draft pick value that would be a bad deal for Detroit, and arguably especially this year (which looks like it has a lot more high-end talent in the top 10 than usual).

A fairer trade might be the fourth overall for one of the 8th-10th plus that team’s second rounder (which would be around 40th overall.)

Source: https://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

Not sure I would do it though. At fourth overall at least two of Byfield, Rossi, Stutzle, and Raymond will be available. I think any of those guys could easily become Detroit’s best player in a pretty short timeframe.

Posted by Sven22 from Grand Rapids on 06/27/20 at 04:25 PM ET

RWBill's avatar

They’ve already got 3 second round picks don’t they?  Don’t need to lose a chance at the top defenseman Drysdale to pick up another second or third tier pick.

Posted by RWBill on 06/27/20 at 04:30 PM ET

RWBill's avatar

I have always wondered why in the H this bingo ball drawing is not done LIVE on worldwide TV and inter web.  Every fan can download the drawing combinations, the 4-number combinations, from the NHL ahead of time.  It would be great suspense and one of the most interesting things the NHL has done in some time.

Fans around the world would be following in great anticipation as they draw out ball by ball and compare it to their team, or use the sequence list to see which teams are still in it.  Like watching a live lottery drawing for $300,000,000.

But no, the NHL does the drawing in secrecy and then promotes a Reveal show. Yuk. Wasted opportunity for real excitement for the fans.

Posted by RWBill on 06/27/20 at 04:37 PM ET

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RWB, not that hyped on Drysdale.  From what Ive heard its a light draft on D and that could be boosting a couple prospects value.  Its supposed to be a deep draft for the first 2 rounds and a lot of variability in rankings.  Hes definitely not a Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes type D man. 

Sven is probably more accurate in our picks value but unless stutzle or byfiels fall to 4, which Id be surprised, Im alright with a swing for fences type pick for our first.  None of these players are going to be ready in the next 2 years.  If they help in 3 years theyd really be overachieving. 

There are some intriquing prospects in the first few rounds.  Fingers crossed we get lucky on one of those extra picks.

Posted by ThatGuy on 06/27/20 at 04:54 PM ET

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https://youtu.be/vtnit9njIeA

I really enjoyed the breakdowns Ive seen from this guy.  This is Drysdales.

Posted by ThatGuy on 06/27/20 at 04:56 PM ET

RWBill's avatar

I really have no idea and don’t follow 17year olds much. Well, boy hockey players at least.
I trust between Yzerman and Draper and the little ball of hate they’ll identify some pretty good player at 4.

Posted by RWBill on 06/27/20 at 05:11 PM ET

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No team in the past 4 years has dropped more spots in the lottery than Detroit.  That is a fact.  Yes Colorado went from 1st to 4th twice, but they also made the playoffs twice.  You can talk all you want about the odds saying this is what should have happened to Detroit this and previous years, yet the odds said Chicago shouldn’t have gone from 12 to 3 last year yet somehow they did, that New Jersey shouldn’t have gone from 3 to 1 last year and 5 to 1 in 2017 yet they did.  When everyone else is beating the odds and you’re not, you’re getting screwed odds be damned.

Posted by Valek from Chicago on 06/27/20 at 05:21 PM ET

OlderThanChelios's avatar

A fairer trade might be the fourth overall for one of the 8th-10th plus that team’s second rounder (which would be around 40th overall.)

My choice would be similar to that but more optimistic about what that #4 pick is worth. I’m wondering if maybe the Ducks or Sabres would be willing to offer their 1st-round and 2nd-round picks for the Wings’ #4 pick. If they were, I’d use their first-rounder to grab Yaroslav Askarov.

The four second-round picks the Wings would have could then be used either for trade bait or prospects with potential. But the real “prize” would be getting a top-end goalie prospect who should be ready about the time the Wings are ready to get back into contention.

Anyway, that’s my fantasy and I’m stickin’ to it.  grin

Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids, MI on 06/27/20 at 06:23 PM ET

Shanny_Fan's avatar

Hows the 2021 draft looking? I’m guessing we’ll be drafting at #4 in that one too

Posted by Shanny_Fan on 06/27/20 at 07:41 PM ET

bigfrog's avatar
Hows the 2021 draft lookingI’m guessing we’ll be drafting at #4 in that one too 

Drafting at 4 again would be too high for the Red Wings. Bettman would drop them at least 4 more spots. LOL

Posted by bigfrog on 06/27/20 at 07:51 PM ET

RWBill's avatar

The odds of rolling a “7” at the craps table (or anywhere else) is 17%, or 1 in 6.  After the point is set you don’t want to see a 7.  The unofficial record for consecutive rolls without a 7 at a craps table is said to be over 150 at one eventful run.  Tons of money would have been made by the players.

Each lottery is a new deal, a new roll, and Detroit can just as easily get screwed next year, if you consider getting screwed as getting the expected results.  What would have been unexpected is for Detroit to get the #1 pick with only 185 combinations out of 1000 possibilities.

The major FUBAR of this system is that so many teams have a shot at #1 pick and the chances for the worst teams getting it is so low.

Posted by RWBill on 06/27/20 at 08:05 PM ET

ilovehomers's avatar

Posted by Valek from Chicago on 06/27/20 at 05:21 PM ET

Rangers went from ??? To #2 last year also.

Posted by ilovehomers on 06/27/20 at 09:34 PM ET

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Here is my solution to the draft for years going forward.  The 15 teams who miss the playoffs draft the first 45 players in 3 rounds.  The 16 playoff teams draft the next 32 players in 2 rounds.  After the 3 and 2 rounds and 77 players chosen the draft goes back into the 31 teams in round 6 and repeat till finished.  Round 1 by lottery,  Round 2 and 3 repeat, until 45 players gone.  Round 4 and 5 goes to the playoff teams in order bottom to top.  32 players. Total 77

Strategy, this system will turn losers to winners much quicker than the present rebuild model. The playoff teams will change more drastically every year.  The elite will not stay at the top for long terms and vice versa the bottom teams.  There will be better competitive games, the fans do not have to wait for a generation before their team becomes competitive again.  There will be more trading between the haves and the have nots because draft choice values will go way up.  I think with so many teams in the league we need to see different teams challenging more often than the same old teams year after year.  Dynasties will be no more and Detroit record number of playoff years will be safe, just kidding.

Problems with this? yeah the playoff teams get one player less but they can keep their playoff gate!

Posted by jhpcarrier97 on 06/27/20 at 10:20 PM ET

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I don’t think anything is rigged against us, but to get theoretically worst possible outcome is deeply disappointing especially when the first 3 picks are viewed as generational talents a la Crosby, Malkin and Kane. Yes, we will get a good player, but nobody who will dramatically change anything in the next 2-3 years.

Posted by VPalmer on 06/28/20 at 05:33 PM ET

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first 3 picks are viewed as generational talents a la Crosby, Malkin and Kane.

NOBODY is saying this years first 3 picks are generational talent. Frankly, nobody has said that about Lafraniere. The all are viewed as difference makers and potential first year NHLers but well below the likes of the players you mentioned.

Posted by evileye on 06/29/20 at 09:47 AM ET

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Welcome to Abel to Yzerman, a Red Wing blog since 1977.  No other site on the internet has better-researched, fact-laden and better prepared discussions than A2Y.  Re-phrase: we do little research, find facts and stats highly overrated and claim little to no preparation.  There are 19 readers of A2Y. No more, no less. All of them, except maybe one, are juvenile in nature.  Reminding them of that in the comment section will only encourage them to prove that. Your suggestions and critiques are welcome: wphoulihan@gmail.com