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Will Anthony Mantha Reach 30?

Ansar Khan of Mlive wants to know?

Can Mantha become the first Red Wing to score 30 goals in 10 years (Marian Hossa 40, Johan Franzen 34, Pavel Datsyuk 32, Henrik Zetterberg 31 in 2008-09)?

find out and that question is eye-opening to me, 10 years without a 30 goal scorer!

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Comments

TreKronor's avatar

Maybe. But that is exactly why I think we drafted Zadina, because we haven’t had a goal scorer in a decade.

Posted by TreKronor on 08/06/18 at 09:27 AM ET

Primis's avatar

find out and that question is eye-opening to me, 10 years without a 30 goal scorer!

It is, but isn’t.

Nyquist had 28 in 13-14, and 27 in 14-15.
Tatar had 29 14-15.
Franzen had 28 in 10-11.  Cleary (!!!) had 26.

Tatar’s 29 is not 30, but it basically is in a way.  I always look at season goal-scoring numbers as having an error buffer of a couple in either direction.  That’s why when people gave Franzen grief for scoring 34 once and then never topping 30 again, you had to understand he also had seasons of 29, 28, and 27, so it wasn’t like he “missed” by much.  He was averaging 29.5 Goals a Season there for a while.  I mean…  that’s 30, even though he only actually went over 30 once.  It’s a good example of how we get unconsciously biased by those nice round numbers with “0” on the end.

More telling to me is that nobody has topped 25 in the past few seasons.  If you had two or three 25-30 goal scorers, it wouldn’t matter so much if any of them went over 30.  When you’ve got only one topping 25 though… then you have real problems.  That’s why 25 has been cited as a goal number for Athanasiou.  If he wants to be a genuine goalscorer, he needs to at least top 25.  25 is where you start to separate secondary scorers and the primary ones.

I think Mantha can get into that 25-30 range this next season, maybe even over 30 if things go well.  But we don’t know for sure.  And that’s what’s so distressing, because he’s the only one that’s shown that potential, so if he doesn’t, there doesn’t appear to be much of anyone else to instead.

That 25 - 30 goals range is the new 30 though it seems.  For now.

Posted by Primis on 08/06/18 at 09:50 AM ET

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More telling to me is that nobody has topped 25 in the past few seasons.

It’s been one year. Tatar had 25 goals in 2016-17.

Posted by CharDeeMacDennis on 08/06/18 at 10:08 AM ET

TreKronor's avatar

Haha alright well let’s not get caught up in specific numbers here (even though it’s counter intuitive). 

The whole point is - this team has not had a GOAL SCORER since 08-09.  We’ve had a couple guys flirt with the 30 mark for a season or two, but even those were mostly anomalies.  We need players on this roster who can consistently score in the 30’s.

Posted by TreKronor on 08/06/18 at 10:15 AM ET

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Larkin, AA, and Mantha are all 30 goal scorers, question is will Blashill establish a workable game plan. No PP, PK inconsistent, scoring chances are low-forget the shots on goal numbers which stink anyways, passes picked off etc. Sorry about banging the Blash drum again, but I’m sorry NO GAME PLAN, just chaos. Players look lost, all of them from A to Z, their numbers pretty much prove it.

Posted by stateofmifan on 08/06/18 at 04:49 PM ET

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Sure, you can say “29 is practically 30” in the same way that 31 is practically 30. 

But 10 years without even random variance bumping you to 30 means your best guys score like 26 goals, 28-29 with luck, 22-23 without it.

For a decade.

Posted by captaineclectic on 08/06/18 at 07:12 PM ET

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Let’s review Franzen first. In his best year that was 34 goals in 71 games with 246 shots and a Corsi for rating of 60.3 and 1-2 hits per game. He could play center, and was counted on in a defensive role. He took his game up a notch in the playoffs. Physical play into his 30s caused missed games each season which prevented another 3-4 years of 30 goals.

Mantha is no Franzen at this point in time.

I agree it is baffling to notice 10 years without a 30 goal scorer.

Posted by mtta on 08/06/18 at 11:09 PM ET

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We need players on this roster who can consistently score in the 30’s.

Along with a number one centre, a number one defenseman, a number two defenseman and a starting goalie.

But 10 years without even random variance bumping you to 30 means your best guys score like 26 goals, 28-29 with luck, 22-23 without it.

I mean, or they score 28-29 with some bad luck, or they score 28 goals because of the politics of the team, or they score 25-26 goals when healthy but miss 25+ games because of terrible luck.

Posted by CharDeeMacDennis on 08/07/18 at 08:41 AM ET

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——-Larkin, AA, and Mantha are all 30 goal scorers,
——I honestly do not consider Larkin and AA 30 goal scorers. Larkin is really a 2 way player. I think he can become a complete player soon and his ceiling is around 25 goals and 55 assists. But in most seasons I would expect 20+50. AA is just too one dimensional as a scorer, I top him at 20 goals with some best seasons when he scores 25.

Posted by VPalmer on 08/07/18 at 06:08 PM ET

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I’m going with the numbers, Vegas was built with numbers. Here’s the numbers for Mantha, Nyquist and AA. Keep in mind Mantha and Nyquist both played on the top line for pretty much the last two seasons while AA doesn’t play on any set line or not for very long.
                Mantha
17-18   24G   1384 TOI.    1G/57.67 TOI
Career.  43G.  2455 TOI.    1G/57.09 TOI
                Nyquist
17-18.  21G.  1464 TOI.    1G/69.71 TOI
Career.  109G.  6837 TOI.    1G/62.72 TOI
                    AA
17-18.    16G.  1087 TOI.    1G/67.93 TOI
Career.  43G.  2283 TOI.    1G/53.09 TOI
AA would achieve 30G in a 1600 TOI season and I believe higher if he was allowed to build chemistry on a top line. We’re talking pessimistically because Blashill’s game plan doesn’t stress or designed for offense.

Posted by stateofmifan on 08/08/18 at 03:30 AM ET

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I think he can become a complete player soon and his ceiling is around 25 goals and 55 assists.

So he essentially hit his scoring ceiling in his first year and has already surpassed his points production ceiling.

That’s a pretty interesting take.

I guess it’s all downhill from here?

Posted by CharDeeMacDennis on 08/08/18 at 09:42 AM ET

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We’re talking pessimistically because Blashill’s game plan doesn’t stress or designed for offense.

True, but he’s on a two-year deal and next year he’ll have a new coach, so maybe he hits his stride then.

Posted by CharDeeMacDennis on 08/08/18 at 09:43 AM ET

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So he essentially hit his scoring ceiling in his first year and has already surpassed his points production ceiling.

Or I can improve my reading comprehension.

Posted by CharDeeMacDennis on 08/08/18 at 11:20 AM ET

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Welcome to Abel to Yzerman, a Red Wing blog since 1977.  No other site on the internet has better-researched, fact-laden and better prepared discussions than A2Y.  Re-phrase: we do little research, find facts and stats highly overrated and claim little to no preparation.  There are 19 readers of A2Y. No more, no less. All of them, except maybe one, are juvenile in nature.  Reminding them of that in the comment section will only encourage them to prove that. Your suggestions and critiques are welcome: wphoulihan@gmail.com