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Abel to Yzerman

Lottery Chances Improving

fom William Burchfield of CBS Detroit,

The NHL won’t release its draft lottery odds for another month or two, but Detroit has helped itself out of late. Prior to its current skid, which has yielded one point in seven games, the team ranked 23rd overall. Last year, that would have earned the Red Wings a 5.4 percent chance of landing the first overall pick.

As things stand today, the Wings rank 26th overall. That came with a 7.6 percent chance of picking first last year.

The NHL changed its lottery format ahead of the 2016 draft to try to dissuade teams from tanking. Where the last-place team used to be guaranteed at least the second overall pick, that club can now fall as low as fourth. That exact nightmare struck the Avalanche last year, who watched three teams jump ahead of them despite finishing dead last in the standings.

Still, the lottery favors the frail. In the interest of securing the best pick possible in this summer’s draft, it behooves the Red Wings to lose, lose, lose down the stretch.

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Comments

Hootinani's avatar

There is no way in hell Gary Bettman lets the Detroit Red Wings have the first overall pick.  My money is on Chicago winning the lottery and making the big jump like Philly did last year.

Posted by Hootinani from the parade following Babs out of town on 03/13/18 at 05:48 PM ET

Avatar

rolleyes

Posted by CharDeeMacDennis on 03/13/18 at 06:11 PM ET

bigfrog's avatar

There is no way in hell Gary Bettman lets the Detroit Red Wings have the first overall pick.  My money is on Chicago winning the lottery and making the big jump like Philly did last year.

My thoughts exactly. mad

Posted by bigfrog on 03/13/18 at 08:08 PM ET

WingedRider's avatar

The NHL changed its lottery format ahead of the 2016 draft to try to dissuade teams from tanking. Where the last-place team used to be guaranteed at least the second overall pick, that club can now fall as low as fourth. That exact nightmare struck the Avalanche last year, who watched three teams jump ahead of them despite finishing dead last in the standings.

There is not any hope of falling into the bottom 4. Solution, pick 1st!!

Posted by WingedRider from Saskatoon, SK on 03/13/18 at 08:19 PM ET

Steve in San Francisco's avatar

I’m tellin ya, bet your bottom Bitcoin on Chicago winning the lottery, and somehow trading for Karlsson. 

Posted by Steve in San Francisco on 03/13/18 at 09:01 PM ET

MoreShoot's avatar

Going into tonight Wings are 26th. At this comment, MTL is winning and OTT is also winning. If they both win, Detroit drops to 27th, 2 points in front of OTT for 28th. What are the odds for 28th place?

Posted by MoreShoot on 03/13/18 at 09:43 PM ET

Steve in San Francisco's avatar

Posted by MoreShoot on 03/13/18 at 09:43 PM ET

Just don’t forget to breathe, man…

Should we argue about the Gold Rule again?

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=5496

It’s a great idea, but it’s WAY too clever for the NHL to EVER think about.

So now we get this:

Posted by Steve in San Francisco on 03/13/18 at 10:12 PM ET

Avatar

It’s a great idea, but it’s WAY too clever for the NHL to EVER think about.

The NHL doesn’t want to cure tanking?

Maybe that’s because tanking doesn’t get you anything. In the past six years do you know how many last place teams have picked first in the draft?

One.

With ALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL the things that are broken in the NHL, why would they spend time fixing something that isn’t broken?

Let’s cure a disease that doesn’t exist!

Posted by CharDeeMacDennis on 03/14/18 at 08:21 AM ET

MoreShoot's avatar

I don’t actually think the Wings are tanking.  I just think they are who they are.  And MTL has a hot goalie and OTT is suddenly playing well.  I expect both to them to outpace us the rest of the way.  Which isn’t saying much.  But that theoretically DOES put us in the bottom 4, which is where you want to be in a draft class very deep in a position of great need for the Wings.

Posted by MoreShoot on 03/14/18 at 09:32 AM ET

ilovehomers's avatar

In case anyone was wondering, OTT and MTL both did end up winning last night.

Posted by ilovehomers on 03/14/18 at 09:51 AM ET

ilovehomers's avatar

But edmonton lost. :/

Posted by ilovehomers on 03/14/18 at 09:54 AM ET

Paul's avatar

The latest at KK Hockey section.

Posted by Paul from Motown Area on 03/14/18 at 09:56 AM ET

MoreShoot's avatar

In case anyone was wondering, OTT and MTL both did end up winning last night.

I watched the OTT game. Hilarious.  They played the night before.  Came out dead in the water.  TB all over them.  Could have been down 3 in the first 5 minutes.  Then, all of a sudden, everything OTT shot started going in.

Posted by MoreShoot on 03/14/18 at 10:03 AM ET

Steve in San Francisco's avatar

The NHL doesn’t want to cure tanking?

Let’s cure a disease that doesn’t exist!

Posted by CharDeeMacDennis on 03/14/18 at 08:21 AM ET

No, the NHL doesn’t want to cure tanking.

The Gold Rule is way too clever for the NHL to ever consider.

Posted by Steve in San Francisco on 03/14/18 at 12:05 PM ET

ilovehomers's avatar

Posted by Steve in San Francisco on 03/13/18 at 10:12 PM ET

Thanks for the link! I will be checking it out later.

Posted by ilovehomers on 03/14/18 at 12:18 PM ET

Avatar

Should we argue about the Gold Rule again?
http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=5496
It’s a great idea, but it’s WAY too clever for the NHL to EVER think about.
So now we get this:
Posted by Steve in San Francisco on 03/13/18 at 10:12 PM ET

Wow. Really thought provoking!

The questions at the end really punch holes in the idea. Are those questions merely exceptions to the rules or are they really flaws? It’s very hard to tell because we can’t actually compare the 4 major sports leagues of NA to each other. The NFL plays merely 16 games while the MLB plays like 200 games. Teams that start poorly in the MLB can still catch up over time or start hot and fall off. A bad start in the NFL means seasons are pretty much over after just a couple of games even if teams are not yet mathematically out (because of they way the NFL schedules better teams from the previous season against each other). Only the NBA and the NHL are really comparable based on number of games played and total wins after being mathematically eliminated.

In one way, professional soccer in Europe is an example of a structure the promotes wining at all costs. The worst team gets sent down to a lesser league. Think about how long ago the Yotes would have been an AHL team?

I also liked the question about teams quickly being eliminated and then playing better. If the goal is to increase fan attraction (and growth), wouldn’t a team under performing (tanking) early when they already know they aren’t good reduce fan attraction early thus harming their bottom line for the entire season?

What is missing is an analysis of what attracts fans and how fan bases grow over a single season and over multiple seasons. This analysis’ premise is about creating a fan dependent teams winning games but the solution offers no analysis of how fans are related to winning and losing. It essentially only equates a team having a better draft pick to creating fans. That’s not necessary true, or is assumes fans are fickle and will only follow good players and not certain teams. That idea seems it might promote shorter player contracts at higher rates with players moving from team to team knowing that fans are only following them and not teams.

As a side note, Gold sure did skirt having to answer the question about unintended consequences. That pretty much means he did not do an analysis of the results of his modeling. Also, keeping the system simple just so fans understand short sells fans intelligence and knowledge about their sport while also ignores there might be flaws in the method - any good method needs tinkering before it becomes a solid performing model. These two things, again, makes me question the research that went into fan behavior.

Posted by howeandhowe from Seattle on 03/15/18 at 03:34 PM ET

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About Abel to Yzerman

Welcome to Abel to Yzerman, a Red Wing blog since 1977.  No other site on the internet has better-researched, fact-laden and better prepared discussions than A2Y.  Re-phrase: we do little research, find facts and stats highly overrated and claim little to no preparation.  There are 19 readers of A2Y. No more, no less. All of them, except maybe one, are juvenile in nature.  Reminding them of that in the comment section will only encourage them to prove that. Your suggestions and critiques are welcome: wphoulihan@gmail.com