Kukla's Korner

Abel to Yzerman

Is 20 Enough?

It’s not often I admit to agreeing with our Diggers, but Teddy Kulfan isn’t wrong with this one.

The money-grab for Parise and Suter just got a little richer.

On Wednesday, the Flames acquired negotiating rights to defenseman Dennis Wideman and promptly signed him to a five-year contract worth $26.25 million (cap hit: $5.25 million).

Wideman had 46 points (11 goals) last season for the Capitals and was minus-8. He played a lot on the thirddefensive pairing for the Capitals.

So if Wideman is worth $5 million, then Suter and Parise should command double that.

If Parise and Suter both leave their comfy homes (where neither one will win a Cup), I think we’re looking at 10 million apiece.  Unfortunately, we need more than just those two.  Our Diggers tell us we sit at 20 million (when you discount the 4 all the smart kids say we absolutely must pay to re-sign Home Keys and Former Dive Kyle Quincey).

Tick Tock is going to have to go all in for one or the other, and neither deal looks like it’s going to happen on 1 July because each of them seem intent on giving the Devils and Bubba last chance at matching. 

If that’s the case, how does Holland wait for both and very possibly miss out on the fewer and fewer plan B options (Semin, Garrison, Doan)?  These are all questions we’ve all been asking but there’s just no good answer.

He’s got to go all in for one. He’s got to devote big-time 1 July effort to a plan b and hold back 10 million for…

...Suter.  As much as I want Parise on this team because he just seems like he has that Wing character, it’s Suter we really need.  It’s Suter because it’s the blue line that is so desperately hurting right now.  If we miss out on Parise but get Semin, scoring will at least increase from what we had this season.  But if we lose Suter, and the others sign elsewhere, and we’re stuck with a Former Dive, a Big E, etc…that spells big, big trouble.

But…I still think there is a chance that Holland’s Schultz declaration yesterday was a very strategic smoke screen. He had to know this kid was heading to Canada, way western Canada, but he threw it out there anyway that Detroit was interested.  It’s just so unlike our Tick Tock to make a move like that. 

And while I think that signing both Parise and Suter is becoming more and more of a sick fantasy, there’s still something nagging at me. 

A grand plan? Maybe.  60-plus. That’s how many of Parise’s games Mark Howe scouted the last two years.  The Wings want this kid badly. But while they want Parise, it’s Suter they need. 

Kenny’s Critical Days of Summer and a Grand Plan to bring them both to Hockeytown.  It’s not impossible, just less likely then it was a month ago. 

Our bottom line has shifted though, and you know it has.  Our definition of a failure last month would have been not signing both.  Now?  Ultimate failure—and this is absolute worst case—is waiting to get both or even one, but missing out and sitting around on 3 July with 20 million left to spend, all the plan B’s packing up and moving to bad places. 

Both is what we want, but Suter.  Boy, Suter is what we really need. 

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Comments

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Keyser S.'s avatar

Wideman had 46 points last year. Suter had 46 points last year.

Wideman played with a scrub while suter played with weber. This changes nothing. Suter to Detroit for $7.5 a year. And he’ll like it!

Count It!

Posted by Keyser S. on 06/28/12 at 03:09 AM ET

Avatar

I want Suter in a Wings’ jersey, but there is no way in hell that he is worth $10 million per.

Posted by godblender on 06/28/12 at 03:25 AM ET

DrewBehr's avatar

Starting to become terrified…

And i can’t stand the thought of possibly seeing Doan in a Wings uniform.

Posted by DrewBehr from The Mitten on 06/28/12 at 03:35 AM ET

HockeytownOverhaul's avatar

I gotta think both these guys wouldn’t want to handcuff the franchises’ ability to surround them with talent for the sake of a payday.  Neither has a cup.  Both their best chances of continuing to get talent and still have success year after year is Detroit, bottom line.  We’ve proved it for two decades.

Doesn’t mean they wont cash in, Agents make the deals.. but you gotta think they would take this into consideration.  Now, Detroit can frontload those deals like few other teams right now and even out that cap hit to something manageable.  Last chance to do it too.

Posted by HockeytownOverhaul on 06/28/12 at 03:39 AM ET

HockeytownOverhaul's avatar

People thought the same about Bert a few years back.  If Doan ends up in a Wings uniform and he does what he does, but for us, you’ll warm to him.  The guy did jump over Howie instead of steamrolling him a few years back, he’s just excitable, gets caught up in the moment, I can relate.  I think he’s exactly the type of enthusiastic personality combined with veteran leadership that we need in the bottom 6.  I think he’s a better fit than Knuble for what he brings though maybe not for value.

Posted by HockeytownOverhaul on 06/28/12 at 03:42 AM ET

shanetx's avatar

  I think he’s a better fit than Knuble for what he brings though maybe not for value.

Knuble doesn’t give up the other team as many PKs for being an idiotic meathead.

Posted by shanetx from Floydada, Texas on 06/28/12 at 03:58 AM ET

HockeytownOverhaul's avatar

Posted by
              shanetx
             
              from Floydada, Texas on
              06/28/12 at 02:58 AM ET
We lost Homer we can afford it

Posted by HockeytownOverhaul on 06/28/12 at 04:02 AM ET

Avatar

I’ve got this sick feeling that really isn’t that hard to describe. You’ve all had it. It’s that feeling you get when the trade deadline comes and goes and you got a Kyle Quincey. It’s bedded deep in my tummy and it’s nagging nagging nagging. Please God, purdy purdy please! Don’t let us be the last kid at school without a date to the prom! Give us a good July 1st!!! Give us 1 Suter and 1 Parise please and thank you….

Posted by NHLrick on 06/28/12 at 04:10 AM ET

Avatar

Suter isn’t worth 10m dollars. Plain and simple. Chara is at 7m dollars per year, while Weber was making an 7.5m based on an arbiter, it seem like that’ll be a reasonable basis for his salary. 2 million more is an overpayment even with a thin market. It’d be better to invest the 10 million in Carle and Garrison at that point. Carle can put about 40 points up a year and Garrison has potential for about the same.

Slotting them in at behind Kronwall and White leaves us with a very capable top 4 despite no consensus number 1 defenseman. At that point we’d have to trade Quincey, or in a pipe dream type scenario we trade Ericsson, although that seems unlikely. Kronwall-White, Carle-Garrison, Ericsson-Smith, Kindl.

With the 10m we have left, we put towards Parise or Semin. Semin’s signing could allow us to bring in another player, although Parise would be a much more explosive investment. As I’ve already addressed Suter’s value, I’ll address Parise’s value. 10m is an overpayment, but not as much as Suter’s. Parise’s actual value should be 8m, based on Ovechkin, Malkin, Ilya and company at about 8-10m each. So I’d be fine (begrudgingly) brining him in for a 10m cap hit.

Posted by Zach Alexander from Ann Arbor on 06/28/12 at 04:35 AM ET

Chet's avatar

I had a whole post that got lost about both of them basically getting fedorov or lidstrom dollars but not BEING either of those two but it got lost as usual when i tried to post. if the wings whiff on either or both of suter/parise, i won’t be too upset and may even think, “bullet dodged.” that said, get em both and they’re once again Cup faves over the next five years…

Posted by Chet from twitter: thegansen on 06/28/12 at 05:12 AM ET

HockeytownOverhaul's avatar

Same thing happens to me when I use the Mac at home Chet.  I can normally see it coming when it stops loading ‘bout a third of the way through, I CnP real quick.

Posted by HockeytownOverhaul on 06/28/12 at 05:36 AM ET

Avatar

Suter and Parise will the Wings a legit shot at the Stanley Cup.

Suter alone will allow the Wings to get into the playoffs at 7, 8 position.

Semin alone they do not make the playoffs.

I’d really like to know if Holland knew about the Wideman deal, if so WHEN did he know.  Same question regarding the Ray Shero ambush.  By Red Wings standards, this team is in disarray. THREE new assistant coaches in < 1 year.  Zetterberg and Franzen basically criticizing Babcock at the 2012 IIHF. Franzen says there is “no joy” in playing with the Red Wings recently. Zetterberg says he likes Team Sweden coaching approach because
(with the Red Wings) they fear making even minor mistakes because Babcock will bench them for extended periods of time.  How revealing is that idea, b/c that is exactly how they played Nashville. They played not to lose. The fear and unhappiness killed the Wings creativity and confidence.  They buckled under their own pressure.  In contrast, Suter in LA tells his team after they make the playoffs, relax the hard part is over, now lets have fun. Mike will show us what kind of coach he is, facing this most difficult season.  Leaders respond, while managers react.  No way in hell Parise or Suter go to Detroit. Not now that Pitt, Philly, Van, Minne are all-in. The Wings farm system, the
“over ripe doctrine” is instantly obsolete.  Someone left the cake out in the rain, Hockeytown.  Thanks for the memories.

Posted by beelza on 06/28/12 at 06:20 AM ET

HockeytownOverhaul's avatar

Forget your xanex this morning there Chicken LIttle?

Posted by HockeytownOverhaul on 06/28/12 at 06:57 AM ET

Avatar

While either one of them will likely command $10M a year, both of them are smart and both of them will likely want longer term deals, so they’re probably both willing to take an Ehrhoff/Richards deal.

Personally, I’m fine with that.

But if either of them want a cap hit of $10M a year then obviously we don’t get both.  Neither does anyone else though, so…

Posted by Garth on 06/28/12 at 08:23 AM ET

Hippy Dave's avatar

Screw ‘em both.  Let’s make a bid for Weber he cant refuse, sign a depth guy or three and call it a day.  The kids are coming, and the kids are allright.

wink

Posted by Hippy Dave from Portland by way of Detroit on 06/28/12 at 08:27 AM ET

NIVO's avatar

Suter 7.7 for 7
Parise 7 for 7

leaves roughly 5.3 try for Semin? What about insurance goaltender?

Posted by NIVO from underpants gnome village on 06/28/12 at 08:51 AM ET

Vladimir16's avatar

Suter 7.7 for 7
Parise 7 for 7
leaves roughly 5.3 try for Semin? What about insurance goaltender?
Posted by NIVO from underpants gnome village on 06/28/12 at 07:51 AM ET

And what about the bottom 6 grinding forward that they desperately need and WILL go after?
I don’t think Suter or Parise is gonna happen and if it’s 9mil plus for either I’m fine with neither coming to the D. Even though a top 2 Dman is what we desperately need, there’s more holes to plug on this boat.

Posted by Vladimir16 from Grand River Valley on 06/28/12 at 09:18 AM ET

Jordan_NOHS's avatar

Suter and Parise for 7.5 for 7 then add Konopka in the bottom 6 for 1-1.2m for 2 yrs. that still leaves ten enough to bring back the RFAs and sign a bargain Dman plus backup with money left for the deadline. Of course I could be wrong because I’m doin this math in my hea without looking anything up. Make it happen

I’d also be fine with Suter at 7.5 and Semin at 5. Whatever happens July 1st it better make me shit my pants in a good way

Posted by Jordan_NOHS from Detroit, MI on 06/28/12 at 09:37 AM ET

Nathan's avatar

Kulfan is wrong for one simple reason. Suter and Parise will get long contracts. Wideman’s hit looks scary, but he “only” got a five year deal. Guys like Suter and Parise will be able to command 7+ year deals. And in the end, the total value of the contract is really what matters most from a player perspective, because the contracts are guaranteed. So 8 years at $7 million per is better than 5 years at $10 million per.

Posted by Nathan from the scoresheet! on 06/28/12 at 09:43 AM ET

J.J. from Kansas's avatar

Let’s make a bid for Weber he cant refuse

The problem isn’t making an offer Weber can’t refuse; the problem is making Weber an offer the Preds must refuse. It is impossible to get a top-flight RFA at a sensible price because his other team is just going to match any sensible offer.

If you want Weber this year that badly, prepare to pay him $12-13M AND give up four first-round draft picks for the privilege.

And what about the bottom 6 grinding forward that they desperately need and WILL go after?

The one we missed so desperately in the Nashville series you mean? We already signed him to a deal worth $2.125M per season.

While either one of them will likely command $10M a year, both of them are smart and both of them will likely want longer term deals, so they’re probably both willing to take an Ehrhoff/Richards deal.

Personally, I’m fine with that.

But if either of them want a cap hit of $10M a year then obviously we don’t get both.  Neither does anyone else though, so…

Posted by Garth on 06/28/12 at 07:23 AM ET

Yep.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/28/12 at 09:51 AM ET

Red Winger's avatar

And here is why we will be stuck live-blogging Griffins games on A2Y next fall:

On Wednesday, the Flames acquired negotiating rights to defenseman Dennis Wideman and promptly signed him to a five-year contract worth $26.25 million (cap hit: $5.25 million).

The owners will not put up with that shite.

Posted by Red Winger from Sault Ste Marie on 06/28/12 at 09:53 AM ET

J.J. from Kansas's avatar

The owners will not put up with that shite.

Calgary has 5 more forwards to sign and $13.6M in cap space to do it. They may not even spend above the midpoint.

I would absolutely love for the owners to try the argument that they paid Dennis Wideman $5.25M and that means they can’t afford to pay players.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/28/12 at 10:14 AM ET

NIVO's avatar

And what about the bottom 6 grinding forward that they desperately need and WILL go after?

Use someone from the stables? Whats a matter, you dont like Eaves or Miller as a grinder? Some of our young guys simply havent received enough ice time to see what they can do or where they fit yet. What was the point of spending money and time on those guys for 4+ years if you dont use them? Some wont be considered grinders, but you have ALOT of interchangeable parts on the 3rd and 4th lines. You also have speed and and presence with most of them as well to keep an established forecheck going the whole game.

Posted by NIVO from underpants gnome village on 06/28/12 at 10:31 AM ET

Red Winger's avatar

I would absolutely love for the owners to try the argument that they paid Dennis Wideman $5.25M and that means they can’t afford to pay players.

It’s a situation similar to politics: Congress has an approval rating in the teens, yet people usually rate their own congressperson in the 60s or 70s, sometimes 80s. So, the message is ‘Congress sucks, just not my congressperson…YOUR congressperson is the problem’

With the owners it’s ‘the NHL cap system is broken, it overpays too many players…well ,except my GM and our organization. The problem is YOUR GM and organization’.

Posted by Red Winger from Sault Ste Marie on 06/28/12 at 10:37 AM ET

RWBill's avatar

$7 M for either Parise or Suter seems wayyy low.  Vinny gets ridiculous $.

Posted by RWBill from cruising Brush Street with Super Creepy Rob Lowe. on 06/28/12 at 10:55 AM ET

Vladimir16's avatar
Posted by NIVO from underpants gnome village on 06/28/12 at 09:31 AM ET 

It’s been stated by Babcock for yrs and FINALLY by Holland since our season ended that they need a big, grinding bottom 6 forward. And they’re not talking about a Miller/Eaves type grinder. They’re talking about a Drake/McCarty grinder. Big difference.

Posted by Vladimir16 from Grand River Valley on 06/28/12 at 11:13 AM ET

Jordan_NOHS's avatar

$7 M for either Parise or Suter seems wayyy low.  Vinny gets ridiculous $.

It may seem low bit if the cap hit on a 7-10 year deal is 7M then that is pretty rich.

Posted by Jordan_NOHS from Detroit, MI on 06/28/12 at 11:15 AM ET

J.J. from Kansas's avatar

$7 M for either Parise or Suter seems wayyy low.  Vinny gets ridiculous $.

Posted by RWBill from missing the Tiki Bar at The Shores, Daytona Beach. on 06/28/12 at 09:55 AM ET

Sometimes I get into the habit of only ever disagreeing with people around here.  Here goes my amends.

I agree with you, Bill.

It’s a situation similar to politics: Congress has an approval rating in the teens, yet people usually rate their own congressperson in the 60s or 70s, sometimes 80s. So, the message is ‘Congress sucks, just not my congressperson…YOUR congressperson is the problem’

Well the constituency can’t avoid politics quite like they can avoid watching hockey if they so choose. 

The best way to fight both issues is with common sense and education. Every single one of those owners claiming that the players are bleeding them dry are more than welcome to open their books to the public and prove exactly how much the players are the problem.

The idea that the cap system overpays too many players is a good one. It’s an easily-attackable solution too: Imagine how magnanimous the players look by saying “well let’s stop forcing bottom-dwelling teams to spend so much to reach the salary floor!”

The reality of the situation is that the players aren’t hurting themselves by doing this: at worst, they’re guaranteeing that every person who gets a contract will be entitled to an end-of-year bonus because the share of revenues is guaranteed.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/28/12 at 11:18 AM ET

NIVO's avatar

It’s been stated by Babcock for yrs and FINALLY by Holland since our season ended that they need a big, grinding bottom 6 forward. And they’re not talking about a Miller/Eaves type grinder. They’re talking about a Drake/McCarty grinder. Big difference.

I DO see the point in this, I really do. But sounds more like going after a fighter type player. I dont think you go after this type of player until trade deadline comes along perhaps. But thats just me.

Posted by NIVO from underpants gnome village on 06/28/12 at 11:23 AM ET

J.J. from Kansas's avatar

Babs has also publicly asked for a top-six scoring winger and, while he hasn’t asked for a top-pairing D-man, that’s because it’s obvious.

The Wings have a glut of bottom-six guys. If they’re going to add another one, they’re probably not going to do it before the 15th or so.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/28/12 at 11:27 AM ET

Avatar

The problem, like Bill Simmons said about the NBA, is not the money Lecavalier or Ovechkin or Kovalchuk makes, they earn it and possibly should make more.

They sell tickets, they sell jerseys, they catch a casual fan on a Tuesday night or Sunday at lunch time on NBC.

The problem isn’t $10M-worth guys making $10M, is $1.5k-guys making $2.5 or $4M Wideman making $5.25.

Posted by Herm from the office on 06/28/12 at 11:30 AM ET

RWBill's avatar

It’s been stated by Babcock for yrs and FINALLY by Holland since our season ended that they need a big, grinding bottom 6 forward. And they’re not talking about a Miller/Eaves type grinder. They’re talking about a Drake/McCarty grinder. Big difference.

Posted by Vladimir16 on 06/28/12 at 10:13 AM ET

Enter Shane Doan, who also is an accomplished, though not prolific, scorer.

Posted by RWBill from cruising Brush Street with Super Creepy Rob Lowe. on 06/28/12 at 11:56 AM ET

Red Winger's avatar

Well the constituency can’t avoid politics quite like they can avoid watching hockey if they so choose.

Obviously, but that’s not the point.

The best way to fight both issues is with common sense and education. Every single one of those owners claiming that the players are bleeding them dry are more than welcome to open their books to the public and prove exactly how much the players are the problem.

And they have opened the books. The players aren’t so much accusing the owners of not opening the books as much as they are insinuating the owners open the books only to show us numbers that are uber-creatively cooked and manipulated by brilliant minds.

Posted by Red Winger from Sault Ste Marie on 06/28/12 at 12:01 PM ET

Avatar

It’s apparent to me that there is going to be labor strife.

Prior to the lockout only 5 - 7 teams spent more than $50M per year.  Teams and fans complained about the ability to buy a cup.

Today, we have more than half the teams spending up to 60M+.  Including “small market” teams like Columbus, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, and Buffalo.

The BJs, Wild and Sabres lost alot of money last year.  And people seem to think that they are going to spend to the cap? 

Especially with what the Kings just did (With a lot of help from the BJs), many teams are going to try to make the SCPOs in the 6-8 hole and get hot.

Posted by BobaFett from Las Vegas on 06/28/12 at 12:10 PM ET

Vladimir16's avatar

The Wings have a glut of bottom-six guys. If they’re going to add another one, they’re probably not going to do it before the 15th or so.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/28/12 at 10:27 AM

And they’re all really cute.

Enter Shane Doan, who also is an accomplished, though not prolific, scorer.

Posted by RWBill from missing the Tiki Bar at The Shores, Daytona Beach. on 06/28/12 at 10:56 AM ET

I think if he actually hits the market the Wings will make a run at him. We shall see….

Posted by Vladimir16 from Grand River Valley on 06/28/12 at 12:13 PM ET

J.J. from Kansas's avatar

And they have opened the books. The players aren’t so much accusing the owners of not opening the books as much as they are insinuating the owners open the books only to show us numbers that are uber-creatively cooked and manipulated by brilliant minds.

It’s not an insinuation.  The books of every NHL franchise are absolutely not open.  The players get to see a lot more than the public does, but they’re bound to not reveal that information, which isn’t even the entire picture. The Forbes list that comes out every year is a morass of best-guesses and whatever information they can scrape.

This is why the Players have taken the NHL to arbitration twice in the last year over the definition of a few revenues and won both times… because there are minds at work in each of the franchises doing absolute master chef’s work with the books*.

Remember when the Blackhawks said they were raising ticket prices because they said they lost money the year they won the cup?

(*I always read that as “master chief”)

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/28/12 at 12:17 PM ET

RWBill's avatar


The Wings have a glut of bottom-six guys.
Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 06/28/12 at 10:27 AM

And they’re all really cute.
Posted by Vladimir16 on 06/28/12 at 11:13 AM ET

I know, right?

Posted by RWBill from cruising Brush Street with Super Creepy Rob Lowe. on 06/28/12 at 12:43 PM ET

Primis's avatar

If it’s going to take $10M per to get either of them, they can both merrily sign elsewhere.  Neither Suter or Parise are worth more than $7m/yr, period.  Don’t give me the “market value” angle either, because I don’t care what other low-IQ GM’s do, Holland’s supposed to be smarter than them.

Let them destroy someone else’s cap space long-term, ignore all the other garbage UFA’s (Semin included), and start working on trades instead.  Try to pry Bowmeester from CGY because Feaster is an idiot, try to get Nash when Howson finally panics (and he will), and then go with the kids for the rest.

And as far as scoring, in the end we need more from Zetterberg.  Period, no excuses.

Posted by Primis on 06/28/12 at 12:50 PM ET

calquake's avatar

If one of Parise/Suter signs in Detroit I’ll be surprised.  By all indications it looks like their signings are going to be long, drawn out affairs.  I agree with Master Chief in that the Wings can’t afford to wait around while Parise/Suter get rub ‘n tugs from all the teams interested in them.  A smart GM will have a plan B in place, give Parise/Suter a deadline and react accordingly.  I know this is out of left field but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Wings go after Bouwmeester in a trade or Yandle, if he’s available, to entice Doan to sign as an FA.  However, it will cost, probably to the tune of Fillpula and/or Ericsson/Kindle plus a draft pick.  Then again… my Magic Eight Ball has been on the fritz lately.

Posted by calquake on 06/28/12 at 12:52 PM ET

Primis's avatar

Criminy, Doan is Franzen, with less-consistent scoring and that takes even dumber penalties.

Make up your minds, guys.  If you hate Franzen, you can’t be all about Doan…

Posted by Primis on 06/28/12 at 12:53 PM ET

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Welcome to Abel to Yzerman, a Red Wing blog since 1977.  No other site on the internet has better-researched, fact-laden and better prepared discussions than A2Y.  Re-phrase: we do little research, find facts and stats highly overrated and claim little to no preparation.  There are 19 readers of A2Y. No more, no less. All of them, except maybe one, are juvenile in nature.  Reminding them of that in the comment section will only encourage them to prove that. Your suggestions and critiques are welcome: wphoulihan@gmail.com